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BoT warns of 2016 difficulties
Pathom Sangwongwanich
30/12/2015
China's economic transition, the wider divergence of monetary policy among major economies, low farm prices and the prolonged drought are headwinds for Thailand's economic growth next year, says the Bank of Thailand.
But central bank governor Veerathai Santiprabhob also pointed to upside factors that could potentially boost growth momentum going forward.
The monetary policy divergence of advanced economies is an external downside risk to Thailand's financial stability next year, he said.
Policy divergence will become clearer as the US Federal Reserve gradually normalises its federal funds rate, while counterparts in China, Europe and Japan have signalled their intentions to carry out further monetary easing.
Veerathai: Currency fluctuations likely
The Bank of England has indicated it too will delay rate normalisation.
"Every time there is a key policy decision, be it the Fed or the European Central Bank, this will incur speculation and volatility in the financial markets," Mr Veerathai said. "Therefore, hedging against risks is important, as it [foreign exchange movement] can go both ways [appreciation or depreciation]."
China's ongoing economic transition is another external risk.
Chinese officials are attempting to restructure the country's economy to focus on domestic consumption.
Aside from how China's economic transition has induced uncertainty in its yearly economic growth, there is the question of whether Thai businesses will be affected by the Chinese government's structural reforms, Mr Veerathai said.
Since farm incomes have been hit by low commodity prices, worries about income received by agricultural households may be warranted.
The situation is further aggravated by the ongoing drought.
"Private consumption in rural areas is what we're concerned about," Mr Veerathai said.
Public spending and government infrastructure megaprojects are seen as positive factors that could elevate Thailand's economic momentum in 2016.
"The essential question is how these major projects can stimulate private investment," Mr Veerathai said. "Therefore the time line, clarity and information disclosure are important."
He said signs pointed to an expansion in private investment, with business loans up by 5% and businesses issuing corporate bonds to mobilise funding.
Tax privileges offered by the Board of Investment to spur private investment could make pending investment applications submitted before the end of 2014 come to fruition in the new year.
The tourism recovery after the Aug 17 Erawan Shrine bombing is another potential boon, as Chinese tourists continue to pour into Thailand.
Tourism revenue could register a higher growth rate if Thailand manages to attract tourists who spend more per trip, Mr Veerathai said.
"Tourism is a sector in which revenue is diversified rather than concentrated, as it streams down to [financial] transactions, supply chain and villagers," he said.
The Bank of Thailand last week cut its economic growth estimate for 2016 to 3.5% from 3.7%, citing heightened external downside risks.
bangkokpost.com
Pathom Sangwongwanich
30/12/2015
China's economic transition, the wider divergence of monetary policy among major economies, low farm prices and the prolonged drought are headwinds for Thailand's economic growth next year, says the Bank of Thailand.
But central bank governor Veerathai Santiprabhob also pointed to upside factors that could potentially boost growth momentum going forward.
The monetary policy divergence of advanced economies is an external downside risk to Thailand's financial stability next year, he said.
Policy divergence will become clearer as the US Federal Reserve gradually normalises its federal funds rate, while counterparts in China, Europe and Japan have signalled their intentions to carry out further monetary easing.
Veerathai: Currency fluctuations likely
The Bank of England has indicated it too will delay rate normalisation.
"Every time there is a key policy decision, be it the Fed or the European Central Bank, this will incur speculation and volatility in the financial markets," Mr Veerathai said. "Therefore, hedging against risks is important, as it [foreign exchange movement] can go both ways [appreciation or depreciation]."
China's ongoing economic transition is another external risk.
Chinese officials are attempting to restructure the country's economy to focus on domestic consumption.
Aside from how China's economic transition has induced uncertainty in its yearly economic growth, there is the question of whether Thai businesses will be affected by the Chinese government's structural reforms, Mr Veerathai said.
Since farm incomes have been hit by low commodity prices, worries about income received by agricultural households may be warranted.
The situation is further aggravated by the ongoing drought.
"Private consumption in rural areas is what we're concerned about," Mr Veerathai said.
Public spending and government infrastructure megaprojects are seen as positive factors that could elevate Thailand's economic momentum in 2016.
"The essential question is how these major projects can stimulate private investment," Mr Veerathai said. "Therefore the time line, clarity and information disclosure are important."
He said signs pointed to an expansion in private investment, with business loans up by 5% and businesses issuing corporate bonds to mobilise funding.
Tax privileges offered by the Board of Investment to spur private investment could make pending investment applications submitted before the end of 2014 come to fruition in the new year.
The tourism recovery after the Aug 17 Erawan Shrine bombing is another potential boon, as Chinese tourists continue to pour into Thailand.
Tourism revenue could register a higher growth rate if Thailand manages to attract tourists who spend more per trip, Mr Veerathai said.
"Tourism is a sector in which revenue is diversified rather than concentrated, as it streams down to [financial] transactions, supply chain and villagers," he said.
The Bank of Thailand last week cut its economic growth estimate for 2016 to 3.5% from 3.7%, citing heightened external downside risks.
bangkokpost.com
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