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  • First of the week baht update, some news and looking ahead at the third Wednesday/questions unanswered.
    • Today, December 16th, 2019 the Thai baht is being exchanged at 29.76 baht per (1) US dollar.


    • BAY: US dollar fall to shore up baht in 2020/Pace of appreciation could slow next year



    The baht's value is expected to continue its upward trend, reaching 29.25 against the US dollar in next year's final quarter as the greenback assumes a path to depreciation, says Bank of Ayudhya (BAY).

    Although the local currency's value is projected at 30.40 against the dollar by this year's end, the baht will likely hit the 29 range in early 2020, rising to a high in the final quarter of 2020 because of looming dollar depreciation propelled by US political risks and additional monetary easing by the Federal Reserve, said Tak Bunnag, head of the global markets group at BAY.

    "The baht's appreciation is still anticipated, but the pace has the potential to slow down and move in line with other regional currencies," Mr Tak said. "The baht is projected to appreciate by around 1-2% next year."

    The local currency is forecast to move between 29.25 and 31 per dollar in 2020, according to BAY.

    The baht has been Asia's best-performing currency throughout this year, up 7.7% against the dollar as of Dec 12, Reuters reported.

    The baht has strengthened by 16% during the past four years, according to BAY.

    Based on the assumption that the Fed will continue with monetary easing, funds will move into emerging-market economies to capture higher bond yields, Mr Tak said.

    High bond yields will be targeted by investors in Indonesia, Malaysia and the Philippines, he said.

    The Bank of Thailand's Monetary Policy Committee can only cut the policy interest rate once next year, he said, as the effectiveness of monetary easing is limited, while another rate cut would see domestic bond yields decline further.

    The US-China trade negotiations, the 2020 US presidential election, the progress of Brexit and the appointment of a new Bank of Thailand governor next year will determine Thailand's monetary policy direction, Mr Tak said.

    Roong Sanguanruang, vice-president for global markets research at BAY, said the Bank of Thailand is expected to separate the imports and exports of gold from the calculation for the exchange rate to help stabilise the baht's value, since gold imports make up 19% of total imports.

    US political developments and the Fed's interest rate decision are factors determining next year's movement of fund flows, Mrs Roong said.

    "We don't think there will be a recession in the US or the global economy," she said. "Thailand's economic growth will remain slow, and this will induce companies to refrain from hiring new employees, with lower investment and decreased working capital among corporations foreseen."

    Big-ticket infrastructure investment projects are a beacon of hope for a boost in next year's economic growth, she said. BAY forecasts Thailand's GDP growth at 2.4% this year and 2.5% the next.: https://www.bangkokpost.com/business...-2020#cxrecs_s
    • Soaring baht deals blow to Phuket tourism


    The economy of Phuket is entering a period of recession. Despite a 4% rise in visitor numbers this year, revenue from tourism is falling, according to research conducted by Prince of Songkla University's Faculty of Hospitality and Tourism.

    "Phuket's economy is undergoing a transformation. Annual economic growth in the province has been at 6% for the last two decades, but recently we observed a hiccup," Chayanon Phucharoen, associate dean of research and graduate study at the faculty, told a press briefing yesterday.

    Mr Chayanon cited a Bank of Thailand survey showing the number of tourism operators in Phuket province had surprisingly fallen, despite rising tourist arrivals.

    He blamed the stronger baht for putting a brake on tourism spending, adding that digital disruption had funnelled tourist services and income towards online platforms controlled by outsiders.

    Other conditions undermining the tourism sector included degraded beaches and poor road traffic safety, Mr Chayanon said.

    There was an urgent need for Phuket to create new tourism experiences instead of relying exclusively on its reputation for sea, sand and sun.

    "The sector can be improved in many ways, such as by offering tourists new experiences like cultural activities," he said.

    It's not only Phuket that is feeling the pinch of a stronger baht.

    Major tourist destinations such as Pattaya in Chon Buri province are also feeling the impact.

    Damrongkiat Pinitkarn, secretary of Entertainment and Tourism Industry Association of Pattaya, said bars have recorded a 40% drop in custom from tourist so far this high season.

    And though the Chinese still account for the highest number of visitors, many are now opting to explore Vietnam where the local currency is weaker.

    Meanwhile the "baht factor" is affecting tourists' behaviour, according to Mr Damrongkiat.

    "In the evening, more tourists are staying within the confines of their hotels instead of venturing out to party at clubs or discos."

    Providing more positive news for Pattaya's economy recently is the huge influx of Indian visitors, who are attracted by the lively night life. "However, their numbers may not grow any larger, so bar owners need to deal with this tough situation," he said.: https://www.bangkokpost.com/business...phuket-tourism


    Where the Thai baht stood (exchange rate) the 3rd Wednesday (I could have used the 3rd Thursday) for the past several months.


    Keep your friends close and your enemies closer

    Comment


    • Wednesday, midweek update.
      • Today, December 18th, 2019 and the Thai baht is being exchanged at 29.80 per (1) US dollar.


      • Exchange history. 3rd Wednesday (or 3rd Thursday) of the month when the pot-licker/boon mee receives its SS check which will be handed over its landlord for parking space.








      The Thai baht has been gaining strength (vs the US dollar) over the past several months (might be levelling off?) and the Thai PM and his coalition are still in office since the pot-licker made its ignorant comment almost 6 months ago.
      Keep your friends close and your enemies closer

      Comment


      • End of the week update.

        Yesterday, December 20th 2019 the Thai Baht is being exchanged at 29.76 baht per every (1) US dollar

        Keep your friends close and your enemies closer

        Comment



        • By Marcus Wong (Bloomberg) https://www.bloomberg.com/asia

          • Easing trade tensions will sap demand for safe-haven baht
          • Equity outflows, low bond yields could add to pressure
          analysisloweredcutting the supply of short-term bonds and easing rules
          Last edited by harrymsmarkle; 12-23-2019, 07:37 AM.

          Comment


          • Start of the week update.

            • Today, December 23rd 2019 the Thai baht is being exchanged at 29.76 baht per every (1) US dollar.



            • I quick review.


            https://www.bangkokpost.com/thailand...21854#cxrecs_s
            Keep your friends close and your enemies closer

            Comment


            • *tsk tsk* Mocking the handicapped during the holiday season is normally a presidential prerogative...

              Comment


              • Merry Christmas. A new low for the US dollar against the Thai baht.


                • Today is Christmas 2019 and the Thai baht is being exchanged at 29.73 per every (1) US dollar. A current new low.




                https://www.bangkokpost.com/business...ersal#cxrecs_s
                Keep your friends close and your enemies closer

                Comment


                • Closing out the week, update.
                  • Today, December 27th 2019 the Thai baht is being exchanged at 29.73 per (1) US dollar.


                  • Thai baht retreating as central bank lowers growth forecast


                  The Thai baht's heady gains are petering out, thanks to slowing growth and a central bank that is bent on taming the currency's strength.

                  After clocking an 8 per cent rise this year, Asia's best-performing currency is losing momentum as easing US-China trade tensions damp its appeal as a haven. Falling yields on local bonds and equity outflows are adding to the pressure.

                  The baht has defied the broad weakness in regional currencies as investors sought refuge in Thailand's safe but low-yielding debt. A hefty current account surplus and a sizeable pile of foreign reserves helped to reel in global funds.

                  But the tide has started to turn. The baht has climbed just 0.1 per cent this month, making it the region's worst-performing currency. It has fallen 0.2 per cent to around 30.2 per US dollar since rallying to the strongest in more than six years in October.

                  The baht may continue this underperformance if US-China trade relations improve further, as Bloomberg's analysis of 19 emerging-market currencies shows it is among those that are least responsive to the yuan's move.

                  The baht's retreat this month came as the central bank lowered its economic growth forecasts, citing global risks. Trade data out yesterday attested to the slowing trend, with the nation's Customs-cleared exports last month falling 7.39 per cent from a year earlier. This comes after a 4.54 per cent drop the previous month, according to the Commerce Ministry.

                  The baht is expected to decline 1 per cent to 30.5 per US dollar by the end of next year, a performance that would put it behind all but three of its Asian peers, according to a Bloomberg survey of analysts.

                  If Thailand's growth weakens, this could fuel further selling in Thai stocks and weigh on the baht. The 12-month foreign outflow from domestic equities is already above the five-year average.

                  Bonds may also fall out of favour as yields decline after the central bank slashed the policy rate to a record low this year. Ten-year Thai sovereign debt yields about 1.6 per cent, less than similar-maturity US Treasuries.

                  Should the baht defy expectations for a drop, the central bank may step in. Policymakers have rolled out a slew of measures - including cutting the supply of short-term bonds and easing rules on outflows - to rein in the currency's advance.

                  Bank of Thailand governor Veerathai Santiprabhob said yesterday: "If the economic situation is worse than expected, the monetary policy committee is ready to use tools to help lift growth."

                  Bottomed out?: https://www.straitstimes.com/busines...rowth-forecasthttps://www.chiangraitimes.com/econo...-on-thai-baht/
                  Keep your friends close and your enemies closer

                  Comment


                  • Starting the week off with another current record set.

                    • Today, December 30th 2019 the Thai baht is being exchanged at 28.90 baht per (1) US dollar. The Thai baht remains strong against the weak US dollar.



                    The pot-licker must need to have its diapers changed.
                    Keep your friends close and your enemies closer

                    Comment


                      • All eyes on BOT data as baht hits highest level in six years



                      The baht appreciated to Bt30.15 against the US dollar last week, its highest level in six years on Friday, Kasikornbank said.

                      Kasikornbank has forecast that the baht could move in a range of Bt30-30.30 to the dollar this week (December 30 to January 3). Investors sold dollars after US economic data showed signs of disappointments such as weaker-than-expected orders for durable goodshttps://www.nationthailand.com/busin...ernal_referral
                      Keep your friends close and your enemies closer

                      Comment


                      • Some recent news with my last post.

                        Originally posted by S Landreth View Post
                        Starting the week off with another current record set.

                        • Today, December 30th 2019 the Thai baht is being exchanged at 28.90 baht per (1) US dollar. The Thai baht remains strong against the weak US dollar.



                        The pot-licker must need to have its diapers changed.
                        • Bank of Thailand explains sudden appreciation of Baht
                        https://www.nationthailand.com/news/...ernal_referral
                        • BoT: Baht below 30 triggered by pre-New Year rush


                        The baht appreciation below 30 baht against a US dollar would be short-lived due to accelerated transactions before the New Year, according to the Bank of Thailand.

                        BoT deputy governor Mathee Supapongse said on Tuesday that the exchange rate below 30 baht per dollar on Monday afternoon was the exception rather than the rule. It was caused by some operators concluding their transactions before the year-end amid low liquidity in markets.

                        He was responding to the exchange rate of 29.88 baht per dollar, the strongest baht in six years.https://www.bangkokpost.com/business...-rush#cxrecs_s
                        Keep your friends close and your enemies closer

                        Comment


                        • Thai Central Bank Girds for New Year Battle With Baht Strength
                          By Marcus Wong (Bloomberg)
                          January 2, 2020, 4:00 AM GMT+7
                          • Currency surpasses 30 per dollar for the first time since 2013
                          • Current-account surplus and foreign reserves remain obstacles
                          played downreduced the supply of short-term bonds and easedeasing measurescurrent-account surplus and foreign reserves are likely to remain an encumbrance.
                          Last edited by harrymsmarkle; 01-02-2020, 06:46 AM.

                          Comment


                          • The new normal?

                            Today, January 6th 2020 the Thai baht is being exchanged at 29.72 per every (1) US dollar. The US dollar remains weak.

                            Keep your friends close and your enemies closer

                            Comment




                            • January 7, 2020, 12:03 PM GMT+7



                              https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/b...031946393.html


                              Comment


                                • Today January 8, 2020 the Thai baht is being exchanged at 29.92 baht per (1) US dollar.



                                https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...-to-halt-gains

                                • Exporters to meet BOT chief to voice concerns over baht's appreciation
                                https://www.nationthailand.com/busin...ernal_referral
                                Keep your friends close and your enemies closer

                                Comment

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