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Thai Baht to go to 28?

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  • Today, April 22nd the Thai baht is being exchanged at 31.93 to every 1 US dollar.

    • Weakening baht bolsters Thai exports in March

    TPSO expects exports in the first quarter of this year to not contract as shipments from the country in January and March were high.

    The official added that exports in March this year had entered positive territory due to the weakening of the baht, when compared to the same period last year, which showed a contraction of 5.04 per cent.

    Separately, Somdet Susomboon, director-general of the Department of International Trade Promotion (DITP), said the department was planning to use digital content and online systems to boost export growth, especially in the wake of the Covid-19 pandemic.

    He added that discussions with manufacturers of frozen and processed chicken, such as Charoen Pokphand Foods, Betagro, and Thai Broiler Processing Exporters Association will be held on Wednesday.

    He added that the ministry will hold a discussion with e-commerce businesses operating both locally and overseas on April 27 about allowing farmers, small- and medium-sized enterprises, manufacturers and exporters to sell products online.:

    Keep your friends close and your enemies closer


    • Today April 24th 2020 the Thai baht is being exchanged at 31.95 baht to every 1 US dollar.

      Bank of Thailand should keep baht competitive for trade: Somkid

      The Bank of Thailand should ensure the baht is competitive and has a trade advantage as the coronavirus pandemic hits the economy, Deputy Prime Minister Somkid Jatusripitak said on Wednesday.

      The economy, which is heavily reliant on exports and tourism, could lose more than a trillion baht and up to 10 million jobs.

      While overall exports are weak, demand for food shipments has sharply increased and there is a need to ensure the export sector is able to compete, particularly with rival Vietnam and Malaysia, Mr Somkid told reporters.

      "On the currency, I've asked the central bank to ensure it is competitive and has a trade advantage, he said, adding every country was competing for exports.

      The baht traded at 32.46 per US dollar at 2.13pm, hovering near three-week highs. But it has weakened by 7.9% against the greenback so far this year.:

      Keep your friends close and your enemies closer


      • Yesterday, April 27th 2020 the Thai baht was being exchanged at 32.03 baht to every 1 US dollar

        Keep your friends close and your enemies closer


        • Today, April 29th 2020 the Thai baht is being exchanged at 31.94 baht to every 1 US dollar.

          Keep your friends close and your enemies closer


            • Today May 5th 2020 the Thai baht is being exchanged for 31.90 baht to every 1 US dollar.

            • Stronger baht may not be sustainable, central bank warns

            The recent strengthening of the baht against the dollar may not be sustainable, the central bank warned, though an analyst said he is cautious about the prospects of a weaker baht for the year and that it may actually be relatively strong towards the end of the year.

            The baht, along with other regional currencies, has risen against the greenback now that there are signs of the novel coronavirus being contained, said Don Nakornthab, senior director at the Bank of Thailand.

            The baht and other regional currencies were hit hard in March due to a fast-rising number of confirmed Covid-19 cases. The Thai currency weakened to about Bt33 against the dollar in March, but moved into the Bt32 range in recent weeks.

            However, Don said the baht is still under pressure due to a sharp drop in the current account surplus resulting from a contraction in exports and a dwindling number of foreign arrivals.

            The current account surplus in March dropped sharply to $700 million compared to surplus of $5.4 billion in February, he said, adding that the surplus may fall to zero if the pandemic lingers. He also pointed out that capital has been flowing out of Thailand in March largely due to foreign investors continuing to sell both equities and Thai government bonds, resulting in a capital and financial account deficit of $3.1 billion compared to a deficit of $4.4 billion a month earlier.

            Tourism is usually the largest source of current account surplus, which was worth $37.9 billion last year with 39.7 million arrivals generating hard currency income for Thailand.

            However, the number of tourists dropped 76.4 percent in March and is expected to drop down to 99 percent in April, Don added. Though governments across the world have started easing some lockdown measures, passenger transport is still limited, while Thailand has also extended the ban on incoming flights until the end of May.

            The baht has also been less volatile in recent days as investors have seen indications that Thailand may have been successful in combating the outbreak, he said, citing the fact that new confirmed cases have been down to a single digit for four days in a row.

            Keep your friends close and your enemies closer


              • Today May 11th 2020 the Thai baht is being exchanged at 31.71 baht to every 1 US dollar.

              • little more than a month to go for a Full year

              Keep your friends close and your enemies closer


              • Today May 15th 2020 the Thai baht is being exchanged at 31.60 baht to every 1 US dollar

                Keep your friends close and your enemies closer


                • Today May 18th 2020 the Thai baht is being exchanged at 31.58 baht to every 1 US dollar.

                  Keep your friends close and your enemies closer


                    • Today May 20th 2020 the Thai baht is being exchanged at 31.40 baht to every 1 US dollar.

                    • Baht is Asia’s top outperformer on tourism rebound bet

                    After lagging other Asian currencies for most of the year, Thailand’s baht has staged a sharp rebound to outperform its peers.

                    The baht has rallied almost 1.5% in May after dropping over 7% in the first four months of 2020. The catalyst? Traders are betting Thailand’s tourism-dependent economy will recover swiftly from the virus-induced slump as economies begin to reopen.

                    “The sooner availability of a vaccine will mean a quicker recovery in industries such as retail and tourism, and as such currencies relying more on these sectors may respond more,” said Frances Cheung, Singapore-based head of Asia macro strategy at Westpac Banking Corp.

                    Yanxi Tan, a foreign exchange strategist at Malayan Banking Bhd. expects the baht to rise to 31.7 per dollar by year-end as the pandemic dissipates. The currency rallied as much as 0.5% to 31.872 per dollar on Tuesday, with sentiment bolstered by signs of progress in developing a vaccine against the virus.

                    Still, the baht’s rebound may be curtailed after the government warned the economy could contract as much as 6% this year due to the outbreak. The Bank of Thailand is expected to lower the policy rate by 25 basis points to 0.50% at a review Wednesday, according to a Bloomberg survey.

                    Analysts say a relaxation of curbs will boost confidence. Thailand has allowed shopping malls to resume business as part of a phased rollback of its lockdown, even as it remains in a state of emergency through May.

                    “Thailand has done well to contain the coronavirus outbreak, with the country gradually reopening businesses and easing restrictions,” says Chang Wei Liang, a macro strategist at DBS Bank in Singapore. “This has given investors confidence that tourism could recover over time, in turn supporting the baht.”:

                    Keep your friends close and your enemies closer


                    • Today May 29th 2020 the Thai baht is being exchanged at 31.38 to every 1 US dollar

                      Keep your friends close and your enemies closer


                        • Today JUNE 1st 2020 the Thai baht is being exchanged at 31.28 baht to every 1 US dollar.

                        • Bank of Thailand ready to curb recent baht strength
                        The Bank of Thailand said it’s concerned about a recent rapid appreciation in the currency and added it’s ready to take steps to curb a climb that could imperil an already fragile economy.
                        The baht’s near 2% rise against the dollar in the past month is among the steepest in Asia, aided by dwindling Thai coronavirus cases, an easing national lockdown and a shallower-than-expected first quarter economic contraction.

                        This backdrop may attract short-term capital flows to the baht, and its performance may be out of line with economic fundamentals, the central bank said in a statement on Monday.

                        “The Thai central bank is ready to take necessary steps to ensure baht strength doesn’t aggravate the fragility of the economy,” deputy governor Mathee Supapongse said in the statement, adding it will also scrutinise gold trading as that may have contributed to the currency’s performance.

                        Thailand’s economy relies on tourism and trade, both of which have been badly damaged by the novel coronavirus pandemic. Officials expect an economic contraction of as much as 6% this year and are sensitive to currency strength that could hamper competitiveness.

                        The government has started loosening a lockdown, though incoming flights are still banned for the tourism-dependent economy.

                        “We are wary that the pace of any recovery could disappoint,” says Irene Cheung, foreign exchange strategist at Australia and New Zealand Banking Group. She sees the baht weakening to 33.50 per dollar by end-June.

                        The baht’s rally may also face headwinds from technical factors. The currency breached resistance around 32.00 per dollar but further gains have been limited by its 100-day moving average. Slow stochastics, a momentum indicator, also shows that the baht is in the overbought territory.

                        The baht strengthened 0.2% against the dollar as of 8.50am, appreciating for a fifth straight day.: -
                        • It’s June 2020 but not June 26th 2020 exactly one year from the time the pot-licking tax cheat made the remark below……….

                        The Thai baht hasn’t reached 33/34 baht to every 1 US dollar during the past year and the PM and his coalition are still in charge.

                        A reminder, if you ever read anything the pot-licking tax cheat posts (anywhere), take it with a grain of salt. It doesn’t understand or know what it’s talking/writing about.
                        Keep your friends close and your enemies closer


                          • Today June 5th 2020 the Thai baht be being exchanged at 31.00 baht to every 1 US dollar.
                          • BoT: Baht gain up for discussion/Movement not in line with weak economy

                          The Bank of Thailand has summoned foreign exchange dealers to meet on Thursday to discuss the baht's rapid gain, which it does not consider to be in line with the country's fragile economy.

                          The discussion could focus on the baht's reversal to a top performer in Asia from the weakest over the first four months, as well as gold trading that has been blamed for a portion of the baht's fast appreciation, Tak Bunnag, head of global markets group at Bank of Ayudhya, said after the bank accepted the invitation to meet.

                          "The baht's movement, which is inconsistent with economic conditions, could deal a blow to the economic recovery. The regulator may want to share information with foreign exchange traders to attempt to tame the baht's rise," he said.

                          An influx of foreign capital inflows followed a better than expected first quarter economic reading as well as Thailand's ability to contain the pandemic. This strengthened the baht versus the dollar, said Mr Tak. Investors are looking to Thai assets as a safe haven rather than for speculation.

                          The baht has risen 0.79% against the greenback since the beginning of this month, hitting 31.55 on Tuesday, the highest level in nearly three months. The currency gained 1.8% in May, the biggest monthly increase in 2020. Yet the baht, which was Asia's best performing currency last year, has dipped 5.2% year-to-date.

                          The rapid baht gain has become a worry for the central bank. Mathee Supapongse, deputy governor of the Bank of Thailand, said on Monday the baht's strength could hurt Thailand as it struggles to keep the economy afloat. The central bank stands ready to consider necessary steps to prevent the baht strength from aggravating fragility in the economy.

                          The economy is on the path to recession after shrinking 1.8% year-on-year in the first quarter, the deepest contraction since the flood-hit fourth quarter of 2011.

                          The central bank recently hinted it could further cut its economic growth forecast for this year as the economy is expected to sink more drastically than earlier projected. Its recent downgrade was a 5.3% contraction as the second quarter should post weak numbers before improving gradually in the second half.

                          Mr Mathee said the surge in gold prices played a role in pushing up the baht, so the central bank will examine gold dealers' transactions and whether they complied with regulations, as well as consider additional measures to curb the baht's rise.

                          Monetary Policy Committee secretary Titanun Mallikamas said the committee is scheduled to release its forecasts on economic growth, inflation and current account balance at the upcoming meeting on June 24.

                          Meanwhile, Kasikornbank's head of capital markets business Thiti Tantikulanan said offshore capital has been spotted flowing into Asian markets as investors shun the dollar. The improving economic prospects of Asia and current account surpluses in some countries are soliciting overseas fund inflows, including in the Thai bourse this week, he said.

                          "The baht is strengthening and it's the most volatile currency in the region," said Mr Thiti.:
                          Keep your friends close and your enemies closer


                            • Today June 12th 2020 the Thai baht is being exchanged at 30.48 baht to every 1 US dollar.

                            • Baht’s rise worries govt; BOT blames it on a weaker dollar

                            Though the Finance Ministry is worried about the fast rising baht, the central bank assures that the baht is only strengthening in line with regional currencies.

                            Finance Minister Uttama Savanayana said on Thursday (June 11) that the Bank of Thailand understands that the currency exchange rate is necessary to support economic recovery.

                            “The central bank knows that the baht exchange rate should move in line with the Finance Ministry’s and government economic plan for recovery, and that it is responsible for the range of the baht’s movement,” he said.

                            His comments came after the baht passed the Bt31 to the dollar mark to rest at its strongest point of Bt30.82 before closing at Bt30.95 on Thursday closing.

                            The Bank of Thailand (BOT), however, is saying the baht is moving in line with regional currencies.

                            “As of June 11, the baht has risen 2.71 per cent against the US dollar since the end of May,” assistant BOT governor Chantawan Sutcharitkul said, pointing out that the baht is the third strongest currency in the region after Indonesia’s rupiah and South Korea’s won.

                            The actual reason for Asian currencies rising against the greenback is that the US currency is weakening, she said.

                            Also, capital is flowing back into Thailand as investors who previously moved money out to invest overseas are now bringing the money back, while foreign investors have returned to the equity and Thai bond markets, but their net buys are not that much, she said.

                            She also warned of exchange rate volatility due to uncertainty in the global economy, financial markets and Thai economy. Businesses that have engaged in international trade have to regularly hedge their risks where the exchange rate is concerned.

                            She added that importers and exporters should not rely solely on the dollar when quoting a price for their goods and services, they should also use other currencies, especially when trading within the region.

                            Naris Sathaphondecha, senior director at TMB Analytics, said the baht rose on Thursday after the US Federal Reserve predicted slow recovery saying it may take two to three years and signalled that it was maintaining low key policy rates until 2022.

                            Also, global financial markets have been flooded by liquidity injected by central banks in Japan, US and Europe. Besides, money is flowing into Thailand as the economy is showing signs of improvement as the government is easing the Covid-19 lockdown measures.

                            Since early June, foreign investors have made net purchases of Thai equities and bonds worth Bt6.5 billion and Bt23 billion respectively, he said, adding that the dollar’s weakening was also contributing to the baht’s rise.

                            “The dollar over the past three days fell by 0.85 per cent, but the baht rose by 1.6 per cent. The baht was the strongest in the region followed by the Japanese yen, which rose 1.4 per cent, and the South Korean won, which rose 0.68 per cent in the same period,” he said.

                            The baht may stay within the Bt30.5 and Bt31 range and is likely to rise until the end of this month.

                            However, it may fall to Bt31.5 to a dollar in the third quarter in line with economic fundamentals. The current account is expected to be at a deficit of 3 to 4 per cent of the GDP, reversing from the usual 6 to 8 per cent surplus to the GDP in recent years.

                            The government’s efforts to curb the spread of Covid-19 has demonstrated an outstanding performance in relation to neighbouring countries, which has also pushed the baht up. He expects the central bank to introduce extra measures to curb the baht’s rise and the Finance Ministry to launch additional stimulus packages.

                            Jitipol Puksamatanan, chief of market strategy at SCB Securities, said the baht rose on Thursday because exporters sold off their dollars out of panic over the baht’s fast appreciation. Early this year, most companies had estimated one dollar to cost Bt30, so selling their dollars now, they will only be making a small profit, not a loss from the exchange rate, he added.: -
                            • Strengthening baht will benefit energy firms, airlines, say stock analysts

                            The baht has been highly volatile over the first two quarters of this year, weakening about 10 per cent against the US dollar in the first quarter, moving from about Bt30 to the dollar to about Bt32.7. However, over the past two months, it has risen by about 5 per cent, staying at about Bt31.3 against the dollar.

                            Sunthorn Thongthip, a senior director at Kasikorn Securities, said the US currency has been the weakest in three months. Economic recovery has led to large investments in risk assets, while the unrest in the US has also contributed to the weakening of the dollar. Populist policies that have led to a budget deficit of $4 trillion – an all-time high – has also weakened the currency.

                            Now, however, with the Covid-19 pandemic hitting a decline, many countries are reopening their businesses, which is starting to benefit Thai exports. Also, he said, Thailand’s economy is showing signs of improvement, which is strengthening the baht.

                            A stronger baht will benefit energy, electricity and airline companies, but the losers will be the electronics and food sectors.

                            Energy and electricity firms have higher dollar debts, hence every time there is a Bt1 rise against the dollar, their profits will be boosted by 2 to 15 per cent. Airlines will also save on fuel costs when the baht rises, so their profits could jump between 80 and 100 per cent.

                            Electronics and food companies, however, largely earn in dollars, so when there is a Bt1 rise, their profits will be pulled down by 7 to 18 per cent.

                            However, the Banpu Public Company is different from other energy firms because it holds a large amount of dollar assets, while its debts are in the Thai currency. Hence, every Bt1 rise in the currency will bring its profit down by 62 per cent this year. The company did, however, make exchange rate gains in the first quarter when the baht was weak, he said.

                            Asia Plus Securities believes the baht will not appreciate as much as it did last year, rising from Bt33 on December 15, 2018, to Bt29.68 on December 31, 2019. Thailand this year will have a smaller account surplus due to a slowdown in exports and drop in tourist arrivals due to the fallout of the coronavirus pandemic. It said the tourism sector may only recover at the end of the year.:
                            Keep your friends close and your enemies closer


                            • Friday, June 19th 2020 the Thai Baht was being exchanged at 30.55 baht to ever 1 US dollar.

                              Keep your friends close and your enemies closer


                                • Today, Wednesday June 24th 2020 the Thai Baht was being exchanged at 30.35 baht to ever 1 US dollar.
                                • SE Asian currencies jump in June, peso leads

                                June is shaping up to be a good month for Southeast Asia’s currencies, with every one gaining.

                                The rebound is narrowing coronavirus-induced losses sustained by just about every foreign exchange in the region this year. While the Indonesian rupiah, Thai baht and Malaysian ringgit all showed improvement, the Philippine peso is by far the best-performing currency in 2020 with its 1% gain.

                                The rupiah, which has surged 15% this quarter, may be positioned to challenge the peso given strong foreign demand for the nation’s debt. Here’s a closer look at the main factors influencing the region’s FXs in the second half.


                                The Thai baht rose 5.8% this quarter, narrowing the year’s loss to 3.4%. The nation’s current account surplus has given it a boost, but it’s dwindling in the absence of tourism revenues in the lockdown. However, rising gold prices have provided some support for the bullion trading hub.

                                Headwinds to the baht’s further gains are likely to come from the Bank of Thailand. It warned this month it’s ready to take steps to ensure the currency’s strength doesn’t hurt the economy. Investors will be monitoring the Wednesday policy meeting, where it’s widely expected to keep its key rate unchanged at 0.5%, to see there are currency-related measures.

                                Peso, Rupiah, Singapore Dollar and Ringgit in the link:
                                Keep your friends close and your enemies closer


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