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  • I am thinking more like 40 baht to the dollar. Have you been to Patters lately? its a bloody ghost town!

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    • BAY foresees baht hike

      The baht's value is anticipated to surge past the 30-per-dollar mark next year driven by Thailand's huge current account surplus and the US's ultra-loose monetary policy, says Bank of Ayudhya (BAY).

      The local currency's value is forecast to hover between 29.50-30.50 baht per US dollar, with an appreciation bias expected throughout every quarter of 2021, said Tak Bunnag, head of global markets group at BAY.

      The baht is expected to appreciate to 30 baht per dollar in the first quarter before strengthening to 29.75 in the second quarter, according to BAY. The local currency's value is forecast to strengthen further to 29.50 and 29.25 baht against the greenback in the third and fourth quarters, respectively.

      "The baht's value tends to get stronger, but it would not appreciate past 29 baht per dollar and we are not expected to see an appreciation of 7-8% as witnessed in 2019," said Mr Tak.

      Despite substantial outflows of net foreign funds seen in Thailand's capital market earlier this year on the back of panic-selling sparked by the Covid-19 outbreak, offshore funds were detected as net inflows in November in local equities and bonds attributed to a risk-on sentiment encouraged by the US presidential election outcome and Covid-19 vaccine progress.

      The firmer baht, which reached a 10-month high against the dollar last month, has stoked concerns about the effect on Thailand's economic recovery, particularly the export sector.

      The Bank of Thailand recently liberalised foreign currency deposits, increased the investment limit in foreign securities for Thai individual investors and established a bond pre-registration system as part of efforts to curb the rapid appreciation of the baht and forge a new foreign exchange ecosystem.

      Additional measures by the central bank to rein in the baht's strength will be unveiled on Dec 9.

      The current account surplus will remain as a factor contributing to the baht's appreciation, said Mr Tak, noting that the total surplus in Thailand's current account remains larger than total net foreign capital inflows.

      Current account surpluses mean a country has more exports than imports of goods and services.

      Huge inflows of foreign tourist receipts over previous years also contributed to a huge current account surplus.

      Thailand registered a current account surplus of US$17.6 billion on a year-to-date basis as of Oct 30.

      In 2019, the current account surplus stood at a massive $38.2 billion.

      Thailand's current account surpluses are forecast at $20 billion and $19.8 billion in 2020 and 2021, respectively, according to BAY.

      Mr Tak said the US's fiscal and monetary policies, particularly keeping interest rates low and targeting twin deficits, meaning fiscal and current account deficits, to stimulate the US economy, will also cause the dollar to depreciate further, with the baht moving in the opposite direction.

      The baht's strength is not expected to surge past 30 baht versus the dollar this year, attributed to the central bank's measures to stem foreign capital inflows, he said.: https://www.bangkokpost.com/business...sees-baht-hike

      Keep your friends close and your enemies closer

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      • The week ending December 9th, 2020 the Thai Baht was being exchanged at 29.58 baht to every 1 US dollar.


        • Shhh…….you don’t want this poster managing your money.

        Originally posted by Talley Ho Ho Ho View Post
        I am thinking more like 40 baht to the dollar.


        Baht set to rise until end of 2021

        The baht's appreciation is poised to continue until year-end 2021 as a result of the weaker US dollar and Thailand's current account surplus, with an export recovery potentially tempered by the strong local currency, says a research house.

        The baht's value against the greenback is forecast in a range of 29.50-30.50 at the end of next year, according to the Economic Intelligence Center (EIC), a research house under Siam Commercial Bank.

        External factors contributing to the firmer baht include the weaker dollar, a larger US budget deficit, less volatility in global trade tensions and progress in Covid-19 vaccines, causing capital inflows to emerging market economies, said Yunyong Thaicharoen, first executive vice-president of EIC.

        Additional factors strengthening the baht are Thailand's current account surplus and the country's robust external stability, together with a home bias investment behaviour by Thai investors, said Mr Yunyong.

        "If the baht's value strengthens by around 3-5% per year, this is an acceptable level and allows local exporters to manage with the foreign exchange rate," he said.

        "If the baht's appreciation exceeds 5% per year, this would affect overall exports."

        The baht's strengthening value has caused jitters among policymakers and exporters as concerns abound about how the local currency's appreciation could offset the economic recovery, with exports bearing the brunt.

        The baht appreciated to 29.98 in early trade on Wednesday, slipping below the 30-per-dollar mark, but retreated in afternoon trade to stand marginally weaker at 30.06.

        Traders at two local banks said the central bank had stepped in to sell dollars to stem the local currency's strength, Reuters reported.

        Since January 2014, the baht has appreciated by 20.6% based on the nominal effective exchange rate, an unadjusted weighted average rate at which one country's currency exchanges for a basket of multiple foreign currencies, and strengthened by 9.8% against the dollar, according to the EIC.

        The Bank of Thailand recently unveiled three measures as part of efforts to curb the rapid appreciation of the baht and forge a new foreign exchange ecosystem.

        These comprise allowing local residents to deposit funds in foreign currency deposit accounts in Thailand, relaxing regulations regarding investments in foreign securities and requiring investors to complete a registration process prior to investing in Thai debt securities, known as bond pre-trade registration.

        The central bank has several instruments in the pipeline for managing the baht's value, with foreign exchange intervention as one of the key methods for currency management, said Mr Yunyong.: https://www.bangkokpost.com/business...il-end-of-2021
        • Today, a look back at one former poster who doesn’t know what it’s talking about. It’s been a year and a half since the post was made below.



        Originally posted by Boon Mee View Post
        Originally posted by Butterfly View Post
        what a sad farce
        Originally posted by Boon Mee View Post

        I will agree with you if and when he doesn't get the baht back to 33/34 against the USD.

        Hearing he's got 3 months to achieve that or his coalition is gone.
        The Thai PM and his coalition are still in power.

        33/34 baht to the US dollar in three months

        Keep your friends close and your enemies closer

        Comment


        • The week ending December 18th, 2020 the Thai Baht was being exchanged at 29.34 baht to every 1 US dollar.


          Thai baht hits 7-yr peak as investors see central bank resistance slipping

          The Thai baht jumped to a more than seven-year high and breached a major resistance level on Thursday, as investors bet the country's inclusion on a U.S. currency watch list might weaken the central bank's determination to slow the currency's gains.

          The baht firmed 0.6% to 29.83 per U.S. dollar. Thai exporters last week had called on the central bank to ensure the baht did not appreciate beyond the 30 per dollar mark, which is critical to keep them globally competitive.

          The Bank of Thailand said it did not see a big impact on foreign trade and investment after the country was added to a U.S. currency monitoring list along with Taiwan and India.

          It added it had conducted two-way intervention only to ride out currency volatility and had no intention of using the exchange rate to gain an unfair trade advantage.

          "I think in the near-term the central bank might refrain from heavily supporting the baht due to the report... by letting the baht dip below the 30 per dollar level today, it is a signal that the central bank will let it move more freely in line with its Asian peers," said Poon Panichpibool, a market strategist at Krung Thai Bank said.

          "The baht is going to be much stronger from now... I don't think BOT will try to change that direction, but they will try to slow down the appreciation, such that exporters can hedge their FX risk.": https://www.thestar.com.my/business/...tance-slipping


          Originally posted by Talley Ho Ho Ho View Post
          I am thinking more like 40 baht to the dollar.
          thinking......

          Keep your friends close and your enemies closer

          Comment


          • The week ending December 25th, 2020 the Thai Baht was being exchanged at 29.62 baht to every 1 US dollar.



            Bank of Thailand holds key rate, cuts 2021 growth forecast

            The Bank of Thailand (BoT) kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged for a fifth straight meeting to preserve its limited policy space, while reiterating concerns about a currency rally and lowering its economic growth forecast for next year.

            The central bank held the policy rate Wednesday at 0.5% in a unanimous decision, after cutting by a total of 75 basis points earlier this year. Sixteen of 17 economists in a Bloomberg survey predicted the hold, with one expecting a 25-basis point cut.

            With a debt holiday over and asset quality concerns, the BoT might cut the rate in the next quarter, said Kobsidthi Silpachai, head of capital markets research at Kasikornbank.

            "While there is light at the end of the tunnel, we remain inside the tunnel," he said.

            The Covid-19 pandemic has devastated two of Thailand’s main growth drivers, tourism and trade. The government has responded with a series of stimulus measures, recently approving an additional $1.4 billion expenditure for the first quarter of 2021. A fresh virus outbreak over the weekend has added a new risk to the fragile recovery.

            Strength in the baht has emerged as a key concern as the government seeks to support exports. The baht has rallied more than 9% from this year’s low in April.

            Seeking to stem baht gains, the central bank has issued a variety of measures to boost capital outflows, and its dollar purchases pushed foreign reserves to a record $255.8 billion in the week ended Dec 11. Thailand recently was added to a US Treasury Department monitoring list over its foreign-exchange intervention.

            The central bank on Wednesday revised up its growth forecast for 2020, predicting a 6.6% contraction compared with a previous projection of a 7.8% decline. It cut next year’s forecast to 3.2% growth, from 3.6% previously, due to sluggish tourism.

            It now expects 5.5 million foreign tourists next year, rather than the 9 million projected previously. That compares with nearly 40 million visitors in 2019.: https://www.bangkokpost.com/business...rowth-forecast

            Keep your friends close and your enemies closer

            Comment


            • The week ending December 30th, 2020 the Thai Baht was being exchanged at 29.62 baht to every 1 US dollar.


              Keep your friends close and your enemies closer

              Comment


              • The week ending January 8th, 2021 the Thai Baht was being exchanged at 29.60 baht to every 1 US dollar.



                this poster says he's a money manager.......

                Originally posted by Talley Ho Ho Ho View Post
                I am thinking more like 40 baht to the dollar.
                and again,.......don't listen to him.
                • Exchange rates tipped for shaky 2021

                Volatility and malleability are key themes for this year's foreign exchange outlook, with the baht projected to appreciate further, fuelled by Thailand's surpluses in trade and current accounts, say economists.

                The baht breached 30 per US dollar near the end of 2020 and hovered around 29.9 against the greenback early this month, before retreating to 30 as of press time on Thursday.

                Net foreign inflows worth 725 million baht in the domestic stock market for the month to date are one of the main factors contributing to the baht's strengthening value.

                The baht has an appreciation outlook because the country has recorded continuous current account surpluses since 1997, said Nipit Wongpunya, an associate dean at Chulalongkorn University's economics faculty.

                Despite the pandemic slowing the economy, Thailand's trade balance is still in surplus because of low manufacturing output domestically, said Mr Nipit.

                "Imports of machineries and raw materials have plummeted significantly, declining more than Thai exports have slowed down," he said.

                The constant current account surpluses also reflect a low investment ratio in the country, whereby low investment is tantamount to lower imports, said Mr Nipit.

                Foreign inflows moving into the domestic bond and stock markets have been fuelled by Thailand's current account surplus, high foreign reserves, manageable public debt and the 0.5% policy interest rate, he said. Negative inflation is another factor contributing to the baht appreciation.

                Thailand's headline inflation contracted by 0.27% in December compared with a 1.2% expansion of the US consumer price index in the same month. This reflects Thai products are cheaper than US counterparts, subsequently enticing more demand for local products, said Mr Nipit.

                The baht will encounter some challenges going forward, according to the latest edited minutes of the Bank of Thailand's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC).

                The MPC has assessed that a risk-on sentiment will continue to prevail in the global financial markets in the short term and the US dollar is expected to depreciate subsequently.

                These developments will subsequently lead to a rapid appreciation of the baht, which could affect the fragile economic recovery. The MPC believes a new foreign exchange system should be expedited to address structural problems in the foreign exchange market and encourage more balanced capital flows.

                Wasin Rojayaroon, assistant director of the economic and policy department at the Bank of Thailand, said this year's foreign exchange outlook will be marred by high volatility on the back of the pandemic and excess liquidity coming from a dovish monetary policy adopted by global central banks.

                Malleability is another key theme. Based on the central bank study, the baht's value is influenced by movement of foreign currencies at 85%, with the remaining 15% attributed to other factors, said Mr Wasin.: https://www.bangkokpost.com/business...for-shaky-2021

                Keep your friends close and your enemies closer

                Comment


                • The week ending January 15th, 2021 the Thai Baht was being exchanged at 29.54 baht to every 1 US dollar.



                  Predictions………..

                  1 - Robert C. Doll, CFA
                  Senior Portfolio Manager and Chief Equity Strategist
                  Bob Doll serves as a leading member of the equities investing team for Nuveen, providing reasoned analysis through equity portfolio management and ongoing market commentary on behalf of Nuveen’s Equity Investment Council.

                  2021 - 10 Predictions

                  #3 - The U.S. dollar sinks to a five-year low.

                  2 - Talley Ho Ho Ho
                  Works part-time as a money manager in a developing country

                  2021 - 1 Prediction


                  Originally posted by Talley Ho Ho Ho View Post
                  I am thinking more like 40 baht to the dollar.
                  I'm siding with Mr. Doll
                  Keep your friends close and your enemies closer

                  Comment

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