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Thai Baht to go to 28?

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  • Midday today it’s at 32.34

    Originally posted by S Landreth View Post
    The week ending September 10th, 2021 the Thai Baht was being exchanged at 32.15 baht to every 1 US dollar.

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    • The week ending September 17th, 2021 the Thai Baht was being exchanged at 32.74 baht to every 1 US dollar.

      • SCB EIC sees recovery in mid-2023

      SCB Economic Intelligence Center (SCB EIC), the research house of Siam Commercial Bank (SCB), has forecast Thailand's economic recovery would be delayed until mid-2023 because of the impact of the prolonged pandemic.

      The research house predicted Thailand's economy would return to the 2019 level in the middle of 2023, a delay from the beginning of 2023 as previously projected.

      The delayed recovery is mainly due to the continuing infections, said its chief economist Yunyong Thaicharoen.

      Under this scenario, SCB EIC has slashed the country's GDP growth projection for 2021 from 0.9% previously to 0.7%, mainly caused by lower domestic consumption.

      The government's lockdown measures to contain new cases have severely affected domestic consumption. As a result, the research centre has cut its domestic consumption growth forecast from growth of 0.1% earlier to a 0.8% contraction this year.

      Even though the export sector is the key engine of Thailand's growth momentum, supply chain disruption due to the pandemic has hurt the export sector.

      SCB EIC has maintained its export growth forecast for this year at 15%, although the sector showed strong growth at 19.4% year-to-date, on a year-on-year basis, Mr Yunyong said.

      Due to Thailand's prolonged outbreak and the restrictive policies of outbound tourism of many countries, the recovery of Thailand's tourism sector is expected to be delayed as well.

      The research house has downgraded its foreign tourist arrivals forecast this year from 300,000 to 170,000. However, the research house expects tourist arrivals would increase to 6.3 million in 2022, thanks to the improving outbreak situation locally and internationally, as well as a low base effect.

      Thailand's daily new infections are believed to have peaked in August, and the situation has started to improve. However, new infections per day could increase after the government eased the lockdown measures.

      For 2022, the research house expects the Thai economy to grow 3.4% from a recovery in both domestic and external demand following higher vaccination rates.

      With lower and longer-impact on Thailand's economy from the pandemic, the government's existing second borrowing under the Emergency Decree worth 500 billion baht would not be enough to subsidise and recover the Thai economy. It is reasonable if the government were to borrow an additional 500 billion baht-1 trillion baht, Mr Yunyong said.:

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      • Thailand raises public debt ceiling to 70% of GDP

        Thailand has decided to increase its public debt ceiling to gross domestic product (GDP) ratio to 70%, from the current 60%, to allow the government to borrow more to rehabilitate the economy devastated by the COVID-19 pandemic.

        Finance Minister Arkhom Termpittayapaisith said the decision was agreed at a meeting of the fiscal and monetary board today, to give the government more room to manoeuver in case it needs fresh borrowing to implement medium-term fiscal policies, while it is still in a position to service its debts.

        The minister insisted that the adjustment is in line with Section 50 of the State Fiscal and Monetary Disciplines Act, which stipulates that the government can adjust the ratio between public debt and GDP every three years at least.

        In the course of the COVID-19 pandemic, the government has rolled out multiple stimulus packages, to boost the ailing economy and to help many working people affected by its impacts. Each package costs taxpayers’ tens of billions of baht, while collection of tax revenue has fallen short of targets.:

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        • The week ending September 23rd, 2021 the Thai Baht was being exchanged at 32.73 baht to every 1 US dollar.

          • ADB trims Thailand’s 2021 GDP estimation to 0.8 from 3% amid Covid-19 concerns

          The Asian Development Bank (ADB) has lowered Thailand’s 2021 GDP estimation to 0.8 per cent from its previous estimation of 3 per cent in April amid continuing concern over the Covid-19 pandemic across Asia.

          Thailand’s growth outlook for 2022 was also lowered from 4.5 to 3.9 per cent, according to the ADB’s updated Asian Development Outlook 2021, released on Wednesday.

          The ADB has lowered its 2021 economic growth outlook for all of developing Asia.

          ADB forecast growth of 7.1 per cent among Asia’s developing nations this year. That compares with a projection of 7.3 per cent in April.

          The growth outlook for 2022 is however raised to 5.4 from 5.3 per cent.

          New Covid-19 variants, renewed local outbreaks, the reinstatement of various levels of restrictions and lockdowns, and slow and uneven vaccine rollouts are weighing down the region’s prospects, it said.:

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          • Cabinet approves B1.34 tn borrowing in 2022 fiscal year

            The Cabinet on Tuesday approved new borrowing of 1.34 trillion baht in the 2022 fiscal year starting in October, government officials said.

            The borrowing is part of a wider debt management plan in the fiscal year, which also includes existing debt of 1.5 trillion baht and 339 billion baht debt management, deputy government spokeswoman Rachada Dhnadirek told a briefing.

            With the ongoing outbreak, the government has a need to use fiscal policy to revive and stimulate the economy, Patricia Mongkhonvanit, head of the Finance Ministry's Public Debt Management Office, said in a statement.

            The debt plan took into account central bank monetary policy and liquidity in the system, she said.

            The new borrowing will also be used to finance a budget deficit of 700 billion baht in the fiscal year, she added.

            Under the debt plan, the country's public debt is expected to reach a ratio of 62.69% of gross domestic product (GDP) at the end of the 2022 fiscal year to Sept 30, the officials said. As of July, the debt-to-GDP ratio was at 55.59%.

            Earlier this month, the government approved lifting its public debt ceiling to 70% of GDP from 60% for more fiscal flexibility.

            Meanwhile, the Bank of Thailand (BoT) said on Tuesday it planned to introduce debt consolidation measures to help reduce interest rates on consumer loans for retail debtors, as the country suffers its most protracted coronavirus outbreak so far.

            The move is viewed as more useful than cutting the rate ceiling of those loans, at a time of high credit risk, as it would push debtors with bad credit to borrow outside the financial system, said Oramone Chantapant, deputy director at the BoT.

            "What will help debtors a lot is debt consolidation, which will be introduced in the middle of next month and we will also increase incentives," she told a briefing.

            However, cutting the rate ceiling remains a policy option, she added.

            In June, the government asked the BoT to review interest rates for personal loans and credit cards to ease people's interest burden.

            The BoT has said it would focus on financial support measures to assist debtors as the central bank governor recently said interest rates were a blunt tool.:

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            • Today the Thai baht is at 33.36 to every 1 US dollar
              • Bank of Thailand holds key rate at record low as Covid-19 outbreak eases

              The Bank of Thailand held its key interest rate unchanged on Wednesday as the country’s Covid-19 outbreak eases, allowing the government to loosen movement restrictions to boost local demand and tourism.

              The bank's Monetary Policy Committee voted unanimously Wednesday to hold the one-day repurchase rate at a record-low 0.5% for an 11th straight meeting, as 19 of 22 economists in a Bloomberg survey predicted. The other three expected a 25-basis point cut.

              Thailand is joining other Southeast Asian countries in slowly easing pandemic restrictions as it balances virus-containment measures with steps to revive the economy. The government has promoted a “living with Covid-19” strategy and ramped up its vaccination campaign, followed by a decision Monday to cut the quarantine period, shorten the nightly curfew and allow more businesses to reopen.

              Thailand reported 9,489 new Covid-19 cases Tuesday, its lowest tally since July 15. About 33% of the population has been vaccinated, up from 18% a month ago.

              Earlier this month, the central bank relaxed rules for its low-interest loan program and boosted incentives for banks to encourage debt restructuring.

              The government raised the public debt-to-GDP ratio to 70% from 60% from Sept 20 to allow for higher state borrowing to fight the outbreak. The cabinet also approved a public debt management plan for the fiscal year starting Oct 1, which includes 1.34 trillion baht in new borrowing mainly to finance the budget deficit, government investments and virus-related projects.:

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                Today the Thai baht is at 33.36 to every 1 US dollar
                Keep your friends close and your enemies closer


                • The week ending October 1st, 2021 the Thai Baht was being exchanged at 33.20 baht to every 1 US dollar.

                  • World Bank cuts Thai GDP growth outlook to 1% this year

                  Thailand’s economy is forecast to grow 1% this year, down from the 2.2% projected in July, hit by a spike in Covid-19 cases and a delayed reopening to visitors, the World Bank said on Tuesday, as the country fights its biggest virus outbreak to date.

                  The economy contracted 6.1% last year, its deepest slump in more than two decades, with the crucial tourism sector devastated by the impact of the pandemic.

                  The economy is now expected to return to its pre-pandemic level in 2023, Kiatipong Ariyapruchya, senior World Bank economist for Thailand, told a virtual briefing.

                  "The economic recovery to pre-Covid levels will be a year slower than previously expected in 2022," he said, adding that was based on an assumption that Thailand would reach 70% vaccination rates in the first half of 2022.

                  After recording 40 million foreign tourists in 2019, Thailand is now expected to receive only 160,000 this year, down from the 600,000 arrivals projected in July, Mr Kiatipong said.

                  Tourist arrivals are seen at 1.7 million next year, when the economy is forecast to grow 3.6%, he added.

                  Exports and fiscal measures had provided support in the meantime and the World Bank backed the government's lifting of the public debt ceiling to help the economy, Mr Kiatipong said.

                  The World Bank's 2021 economic outlook compared with growth of 1.3% predicted by the finance ministry and 0.7% by the central bank.:

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                  • The week ending October 8th, 2021 the Thai Baht was being exchanged at 33.42 baht to every 1 US dollar.

                    • Sept inflation beats forecast as state subsidies end

                    The headline consumer price index (CPI) rose more than expected in September as government utility subsidies ended and energy prices increased, the Commerce Ministry said on Tuesday.

                    The CPI rose 1.68% in September year-on-year, the most in four months, compared with a forecast for a rise of 0.70% in a Reuters poll. It followed August's 0.02% dip.

                    October's CPI is expected to be similar to September's pace, ministry official Wichanun Niwatjinda told a news conference on Thursday.

                    Consumer prices in the fourth quarter are likely to increase further, driven by higher oil prices, improved economic activity after the easing of coronavirus restrictions and a weaker baht currency, he said.

                    "Our inflation is not high like other countries because of government support measures," he said, adding main inflation was expected at 0.8% to 1.2% this year, barring additional government measures to reduce living costs.

                    In September, the core CPI index was up 0.19% from a year earlier, compared with a forecast for a 0.20% rise.

                    In the January-September period, headline CPI rose 0.83% from a year earlier, with the core rate up 0.23%.:

                    Keep your friends close and your enemies closer


                    • 33.40 to every US dollar today
                      Keep your friends close and your enemies closer


                      • hope the thai baht remains above 33 baht to every US dollar
                        Keep your friends close and your enemies closer


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