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Thai Baht to go to 28?

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  • The week ending November 12th, 2021 the Thai Baht was being exchanged at 32.37 baht to every 1 US dollar.

    • Bank of Thailand holds key rate at record low as economy recovers

    The Bank of Thailand (BoT) left its key interest rate unchanged at a record low again on Wednesday, as widely expected, to support the economy as the country tries to revive the vital tourism sector.

    The BoT’s Monetary Policy Committee unanimously voted to hold the one-day repurchase rate at 0.50% for a 12th straight meeting, as expected by all 21 economists in a Reuters poll

    The rate was cut three times last year to alleviate the impact of the coronavirus pandemic.

    "The Committee assessed that the Thai economy had bottomed out in the third quarter of 2021 and entered the recovery phase following the relaxation of containment measures and the re-opening of the country," the BoT said in a statement after its policy meeting.

    However, the fragile economic recovery outlook would still be subject to uncertainties, it added.

    The economy would expand at a pace close to the previous projection for 2021 and 2022 on the back of domestic spending that gradually recovered following the relaxation of containment measures, partially offsetting the adverse impact of higher global energy prices, the BoT said.

    In September, the BoT forecast economic growth of 0.7% this year and 200,000 foreign tourists. Next year, it predicted 3.9% GDP growth and 6 million foreign arrivals.

    In 2019, nearly 40 million foreign visitors spent 1.91 trillion baht.

    “I don’t think today’s decision and statement moves the needle much on Bank of Thailand’s monetary policy outlook,” said Euben Paracuelles, economist at Nomura Holdings Inc in Singapore. “There is some discussion on inflation but BoT was clear underlying pressures are still low. This allows them to continue to focus on supporting the economic recovery.”

    Nomura expects the Thai central bank to keep its policy rate unchanged throughout 2022 as the nation’s economic recovery may lag the broader region because of a slow rebound in tourism despite the reopening this month, Paracuelles said.

    The BoT said the baht was more volatile and it would closely monitor developments in both global and domestic financial markets and continue to work on improving the structural issues in the foreign exchange system.

    The baht was little changed after the rate announcement, holding gains of 0.1% against the dollar and poised for a fourth straight day of advances. The currency has gained 1.3% so far this month. While the benchmark stock index pared losses in afternoon trading, the yield on 10-year government bonds rose two basis points to 1.883%.

    The Bank of Thailand sees low probability of the US Federal Reserve raising rates faster than expected, but it stands ready to handle any impact on the nation’s currency, bond yields and capital flows, Assistant Governor Piti Disyatat told a briefing.

    The Monetary Policy Committee will revise economic forecasts at its next meeting on Dec 22, Mr Piti said. The panel may slightly raise its inflation forecasts, though the price gains are not significant enough to impact monetary policy, he said.:
    • Oct industries sentiment at 5-month high on travel reopening

    Thailand's industries sentiment rose for a second straight month in October to a five-month high, bolstered by improved economic activity following an easing of coronavirus curbs, including a travel reopening, an industries group said on Monday.

    The country welcomed vaccinated foreign visitors quarantine-free from this month in a bid to revive its struggling tourism sector.

    The Federation of Thai Industries (FTI) said its industries sentiment index rose to 82.1 last month from 79.0 in September.

    "We see more people mobility and more hotel bookings for the New Year period, which are good signs for the country's reopening," FTI chairman Supant Mongkolsuthree told a briefing.

    The FTI expects the economic recovery to continue and urges the government to urgently introduce more stimulus and further relax restrictions to spur domestic activity, he said.

    The sentiment index, however, remains below 100, indicating that enterprises' confidence "is still poor", Mr Supant added.

    Higher prices of materials and fuel, currency volatility and a labour shortage are among negative factors, he said.

    At least 500,000 migrant workers are needed, particularly in the construction and food sectors, he added.:

    Keep your friends close and your enemies closer


    • The week ending November 18th, 2021 the Thai Baht was being exchanged at 32.26 baht to every 1 US dollar.

      • Thailand economy expected to recover in Q1/2022: TU-RAC

      Thailands herd immunity can be reached with 100 million vaccines administered by the end of 2021 and forecasts economic recovery with 1.1 million more international tourists in Q1/2022, according to the Thammasat University Research and Consultancy Institute (TU-RAC)s research.

      Asst Prof Suthikorn Kingkaew, a research project manager at Thammasat University Research and Consultancy Institute (TU-RAC), revealed on Tuesday (November 16) that over the past two years, Thailand had been impacted by the Covid-19 pandemic in various perspectives, including economy, society, and livelihood, due to heavy reliance on other countries for revenue, such as tourism, exports, and inward investment.

      He said a research project was initiated to study the economic and social impacts of Covid-19 and the development of domestic vaccine production in Thailand, along with the government’s policy response, as well as to forecast economic and social implications following vaccine rollouts and investigate long-term economic benefits and health security brought about by a domestic Covid-19 vaccine production base.

      "According to the study, the Covid-19 pandemic was responsible for a 6.1 per cent decline in the gross domestic product (GDP) in 2020 compared to 2019. Starting from Q1/2020, Covid-19 caused the industrial sector and the service sector, especially in the spheres of accommodation, food services, transportation, and warehousing, to shrink by 36.6 per cent and 21 per cent, respectively, while also triggering a 19.4 per cent shrinkage in the export sector," he said.

      The study also found that Covid-19 impacted Thailand’s economy and society in eight major areas, namely:

      • Economy shrinks less than expected, 2021 outlook raised as tourism revival eyed

      Thailand's economy contracted less than expected in the third quarter as businesses started a slow recovery from the coronavirus-driven slump in activity, while the reopening of the tourism sector raised hopes of a steady revival.

      The government upgraded its economic growth outlook to 1.2% this year, compared with a previous forecast of 0.7%-1.2% expansion, and projected 3.5%-4.5% growth in 2022, thanks to an easing of Covid-19 curbs and a reopening to overseas travellers to reboot its vital tourism industry.

      Southeast Asia's second-largest economy tumbled 6.1% last year.

      The economy shrank a seasonally adjusted 1.1% in the September quarter from the previous three months, data from the National Economic and Social Development Council (NESDC) showed, versus a forecast 2.5% drop in a Reuters poll, and a revised seasonally adjusted 0.1% growth in the June quarter.

      From a year earlier, gross domestic product (GDP) shrank 0.3% in July-September, a shallower than expected fall than the forecast 0.8% drop, and against a revised 7.6% growth in April-June.

      "We expect GDP to rebound strongly in the final quarter now that cases are falling, restrictions are being lifted and the vaccine rollout is gaining momentum," said Gareth Leather, senior Asia economist at Capital Economics.

      NESDC secretary-general Danucha Pichayanan told a news conference that economic indicators pointed to improving conditions and the government was considering introducing more measures to boost consumption before the New Year.

      "If there are no more outbreaks, the fourth quarter will definitely be better than the third," he said, adding that domestic consumption, public spending and tourism will drive growth in 2022.

      Increased exports and fiscal measures helped to limit the fallout from the pandemic. The NESDC expects exports to grow 16.8% this year versus a 16.3% rise seen earlier. In 2022, it predicted 4.9% export growth.

      Exports in the third quarter grew 15.7% from a year earlier, but private consumption was hurt by the Covid-19 curbs and dropped 3.2%.

      The agency predicted 200,000 foreign tourists this year, compared with 150,000 seen previously, and forecast 5 million visitors next year. There were 40 million foreign tourists in 2019.

      With a fraction of foreign tourists expected compared with pre-pandemic levels, most analysts expect the economic recovery will be slow.

      "Beyond the fourth quarter, the prospects for the recovery hinge on how quickly the tourism sector recovers," Capital Economics' Leather said.

      The government has introduced billions of dollars of relief measures to help revive the economy while the central bank has left its key rate at a record low of 0.50% since May 2020.

      Takit Chartchredsak, an economist at Asia Plus Securities, said interest rates are expected to remain unchanged through 2022 to support the economic recovery.:
      • Tourism Ministry eyes Bt1.5 trillion revenue in 2022

      Revenue from tourism in 2022 is expected to reach 1.5 trillion baht after the Cabinet meeting earlier this week has approved the proposal to make 2022 the year of promoting Thailand’s tourism, said Tourism and Sports minister Pipat Ratchakitprakan on Thursday.

      The ministry has also proposed the campaign "Visit Thailand Year 2022 : Amazing New Chapters", to be spearheaded by Tourism Authority of Thailand (TAT), to attract more foreign visitors to the country.

      “The campaign aims to distribute tourism revenues to all five regions, with central locations in Phuket, Pattaya, Nakhon Ratchasima, Chiang Mai and Ayutthaya,” said Pipat. “We will use Thai traditional performances by local artists along with performances by famous guests from overseas to attract visitors. The campaign will be sponsored by both the government and private sector.”

      Pipat also added that the meeting of Centre for Covid-19 Situation Administration (CCSA) on November 12 had approved the setting up of Centre for Emergency Situation Related to Tourism and Sports. “This new centre will be a central agency that provide solutions to domestic and foreign tourists in Thailand who run into problems or need assistance,” he added. “It will be headed by the permanent secretary for tourism and sports.”

      TAT Governor Yuthasak Supasorn added that since the government has allowed vaccinated foreign visitors to land in Thailand from November 1, the number of foreign tourists has been rising continually. “Emirates airline recently switched the airplane flying between Dubai and Bangkok from Boeing 777, which has a capacity of 200 passengers to Airbus A380, which can carry 500 passengers,” he said. “This shows that the demand to enter Thailand by foreigners is now climbing.”

      “TAT set the revenue target from tourism in 2022 at 1.5 trillion baht, or about 50 per cent of tourism revenue in 2019, before the Covid-19 situation,” he added. “In 2023, we set the target at 80 per cent of 2019 revenue, or 2.4 trillion baht.”:

      Keep your friends close and your enemies closer


      • The week ending November 26th, 2021 the Thai Baht was being exchanged at 33.11 baht to every 1 US dollar.

        Exports rise 17% y/y in Oct – ministry

        Thailand's exports rose 17.35% in October from a year earlier while imports jumped 34.64%, according to Commerce Ministry data on Thursday.

        Exports amounted to $22.74 billion and imports were worth $23.11 billion, resulting in a trade deficit of $370 million, the figures showed. The ministry will hold a briefing on the trade data by next week.:
        Keep your friends close and your enemies closer


        • good to see it above 33 baht to each US dollar again
          Keep your friends close and your enemies closer


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