Thai Baht to go to 28?

[Talley Ho Ho Ho]

I am thinking more like 40 baht to the dollar. Have you been to Patters lately? its a bloody ghost town!

[S Landreth]

BAY foresees baht hike

The baht's value is anticipated to surge past the 30-per-dollar mark next year driven by Thailand's huge current account surplus and the US's ultra-loose monetary policy, says Bank of Ayudhya (BAY).

The local currency's value is forecast to hover between 29.50-30.50 baht per US dollar, with an appreciation bias expected throughout every quarter of 2021, said Tak Bunnag, head of global markets group at BAY.

The baht is expected to appreciate to 30 baht per dollar in the first quarter before strengthening to 29.75 in the second quarter, according to BAY. The local currency's value is forecast to strengthen further to 29.50 and 29.25 baht against the greenback in the third and fourth quarters, respectively.

"The baht's value tends to get stronger, but it would not appreciate past 29 baht per dollar and we are not expected to see an appreciation of 7-8% as witnessed in 2019," said Mr Tak.

Despite substantial outflows of net foreign funds seen in Thailand's capital market earlier this year on the back of panic-selling sparked by the Covid-19 outbreak, offshore funds were detected as net inflows in November in local equities and bonds attributed to a risk-on sentiment encouraged by the US presidential election outcome and Covid-19 vaccine progress.

The firmer baht, which reached a 10-month high against the dollar last month, has stoked concerns about the effect on Thailand's economic recovery, particularly the export sector.

The Bank of Thailand recently liberalised foreign currency deposits, increased the investment limit in foreign securities for Thai individual investors and established a bond pre-registration system as part of efforts to curb the rapid appreciation of the baht and forge a new foreign exchange ecosystem.

Additional measures by the central bank to rein in the baht's strength will be unveiled on Dec 9.

The current account surplus will remain as a factor contributing to the baht's appreciation, said Mr Tak, noting that the total surplus in Thailand's current account remains larger than total net foreign capital inflows.

Current account surpluses mean a country has more exports than imports of goods and services.

Huge inflows of foreign tourist receipts over previous years also contributed to a huge current account surplus.

Thailand registered a current account surplus of US$17.6 billion on a year-to-date basis as of Oct 30.

In 2019, the current account surplus stood at a massive $38.2 billion.

Thailand's current account surpluses are forecast at $20 billion and $19.8 billion in 2020 and 2021, respectively, according to BAY.

Mr Tak said the US's fiscal and monetary policies, particularly keeping interest rates low and targeting twin deficits, meaning fiscal and current account deficits, to stimulate the US economy, will also cause the dollar to depreciate further, with the baht moving in the opposite direction.

The baht's strength is not expected to surge past 30 baht versus the dollar this year, attributed to the central bank's measures to stem foreign capital inflows, he said.: https://www.bangkokpost.com/business...sees-baht-hike

[S Landreth]

The week ending December 9^th, 2020 the Thai Baht was being exchanged at 29.58 baht to every 1 US dollar.

• Shhh…….you don’t want this poster managing your money.

I am thinking more like 40 baht to the dollar.

Baht set to rise until end of 2021

The baht's appreciation is poised to continue until year-end 2021 as a result of the weaker US dollar and Thailand's current account surplus, with an export recovery potentially tempered by the strong local currency, says a research house.

The baht's value against the greenback is forecast in a range of 29.50-30.50 at the end of next year, according to the Economic Intelligence Center (EIC), a research house under Siam Commercial Bank.

External factors contributing to the firmer baht include the weaker dollar, a larger US budget deficit, less volatility in global trade tensions and progress in Covid-19 vaccines, causing capital inflows to emerging market economies, said Yunyong Thaicharoen, first executive vice-president of EIC.

Additional factors strengthening the baht are Thailand's current account surplus and the country's robust external stability, together with a home bias investment behaviour by Thai investors, said Mr Yunyong.

"If the baht's value strengthens by around 3-5% per year, this is an acceptable level and allows local exporters to manage with the foreign exchange rate," he said.

"If the baht's appreciation exceeds 5% per year, this would affect overall exports."

The baht's strengthening value has caused jitters among policymakers and exporters as concerns abound about how the local currency's appreciation could offset the economic recovery, with exports bearing the brunt.

The baht appreciated to 29.98 in early trade on Wednesday, slipping below the 30-per-dollar mark, but retreated in afternoon trade to stand marginally weaker at 30.06.

Traders at two local banks said the central bank had stepped in to sell dollars to stem the local currency's strength, Reuters reported.

Since January 2014, the baht has appreciated by 20.6% based on the nominal effective exchange rate, an unadjusted weighted average rate at which one country's currency exchanges for a basket of multiple foreign currencies, and strengthened by 9.8% against the dollar, according to the EIC.

The Bank of Thailand recently unveiled three measures as part of efforts to curb the rapid appreciation of the baht and forge a new foreign exchange ecosystem.

These comprise allowing local residents to deposit funds in foreign currency deposit accounts in Thailand, relaxing regulations regarding investments in foreign securities and requiring investors to complete a registration process prior to investing in Thai debt securities, known as bond pre-trade registration.

The central bank has several instruments in the pipeline for managing the baht's value, with foreign exchange intervention as one of the key methods for currency management, said Mr Yunyong.: https://www.bangkokpost.com/business...il-end-of-2021

• Today, a look back at one former poster who doesn’t know what it’s talking about. It’s been a year and a half since the post was made below.

what a sad farce

I will agree with you if and when he doesn't get the baht back to 33/34 against the USD.

Hearing he's got 3 months to achieve that or his coalition is gone.

The Thai PM and his coalition are still in power.

33/34 baht to the US dollar in three months

[S Landreth]

The week ending December 18^th, 2020 the Thai Baht was being exchanged at 29.34 baht to every 1 US dollar.

Thai baht hits 7-yr peak as investors see central bank resistance slipping

The Thai baht jumped to a more than seven-year high and breached a major resistance level on Thursday, as investors bet the country's inclusion on a U.S. currency watch list might weaken the central bank's determination to slow the currency's gains.

The baht firmed 0.6% to 29.83 per U.S. dollar. Thai exporters last week had called on the central bank to ensure the baht did not appreciate beyond the 30 per dollar mark, which is critical to keep them globally competitive.

The Bank of Thailand said it did not see a big impact on foreign trade and investment after the country was added to a U.S. currency monitoring list along with Taiwan and India.

It added it had conducted two-way intervention only to ride out currency volatility and had no intention of using the exchange rate to gain an unfair trade advantage.

"I think in the near-term the central bank might refrain from heavily supporting the baht due to the report... by letting the baht dip below the 30 per dollar level today, it is a signal that the central bank will let it move more freely in line with its Asian peers," said Poon Panichpibool, a market strategist at Krung Thai Bank said.

"The baht is going to be much stronger from now... I don't think BOT will try to change that direction, but they will try to slow down the appreciation, such that exporters can hedge their FX risk.": https://www.thestar.com.my/business/...tance-slipping

I am thinking more like 40 baht to the dollar.

thinking......

[S Landreth]

The week ending December 25th, 2020 the Thai Baht was being exchanged at 29.62 baht to every 1 US dollar.

Bank of Thailand holds key rate, cuts 2021 growth forecast

The Bank of Thailand (BoT) kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged for a fifth straight meeting to preserve its limited policy space, while reiterating concerns about a currency rally and lowering its economic growth forecast for next year.

The central bank held the policy rate Wednesday at 0.5% in a unanimous decision, after cutting by a total of 75 basis points earlier this year. Sixteen of 17 economists in a Bloomberg survey predicted the hold, with one expecting a 25-basis point cut.

With a debt holiday over and asset quality concerns, the BoT might cut the rate in the next quarter, said Kobsidthi Silpachai, head of capital markets research at Kasikornbank.

"While there is light at the end of the tunnel, we remain inside the tunnel," he said.

The Covid-19 pandemic has devastated two of Thailand’s main growth drivers, tourism and trade. The government has responded with a series of stimulus measures, recently approving an additional $1.4 billion expenditure for the first quarter of 2021. A fresh virus outbreak over the weekend has added a new risk to the fragile recovery.

Strength in the baht has emerged as a key concern as the government seeks to support exports. The baht has rallied more than 9% from this year’s low in April.

Seeking to stem baht gains, the central bank has issued a variety of measures to boost capital outflows, and its dollar purchases pushed foreign reserves to a record $255.8 billion in the week ended Dec 11. Thailand recently was added to a US Treasury Department monitoring list over its foreign-exchange intervention.

The central bank on Wednesday revised up its growth forecast for 2020, predicting a 6.6% contraction compared with a previous projection of a 7.8% decline. It cut next year’s forecast to 3.2% growth, from 3.6% previously, due to sluggish tourism.

It now expects 5.5 million foreign tourists next year, rather than the 9 million projected previously. That compares with nearly 40 million visitors in 2019.: https://www.bangkokpost.com/business...rowth-forecast

[S Landreth]

The week ending December 30^th, 2020 the Thai Baht was being exchanged at 29.62 baht to every 1 US dollar.

[S Landreth]

The week ending January 8^th, 2021 the Thai Baht was being exchanged at 29.60 baht to every 1 US dollar.

this poster says he's a money manager.......

I am thinking more like 40 baht to the dollar.

and again,.......don't listen to him.

• Exchange rates tipped for shaky 2021

Volatility and malleability are key themes for this year's foreign exchange outlook, with the baht projected to appreciate further, fuelled by Thailand's surpluses in trade and current accounts, say economists.

The baht breached 30 per US dollar near the end of 2020 and hovered around 29.9 against the greenback early this month, before retreating to 30 as of press time on Thursday.

Net foreign inflows worth 725 million baht in the domestic stock market for the month to date are one of the main factors contributing to the baht's strengthening value.

The baht has an appreciation outlook because the country has recorded continuous current account surpluses since 1997, said Nipit Wongpunya, an associate dean at Chulalongkorn University's economics faculty.

Despite the pandemic slowing the economy, Thailand's trade balance is still in surplus because of low manufacturing output domestically, said Mr Nipit.

"Imports of machineries and raw materials have plummeted significantly, declining more than Thai exports have slowed down," he said.

The constant current account surpluses also reflect a low investment ratio in the country, whereby low investment is tantamount to lower imports, said Mr Nipit.

Foreign inflows moving into the domestic bond and stock markets have been fuelled by Thailand's current account surplus, high foreign reserves, manageable public debt and the 0.5% policy interest rate, he said. Negative inflation is another factor contributing to the baht appreciation.

Thailand's headline inflation contracted by 0.27% in December compared with a 1.2% expansion of the US consumer price index in the same month. This reflects Thai products are cheaper than US counterparts, subsequently enticing more demand for local products, said Mr Nipit.

The baht will encounter some challenges going forward, according to the latest edited minutes of the Bank of Thailand's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC).

The MPC has assessed that a risk-on sentiment will continue to prevail in the global financial markets in the short term and the US dollar is expected to depreciate subsequently.

These developments will subsequently lead to a rapid appreciation of the baht, which could affect the fragile economic recovery. The MPC believes a new foreign exchange system should be expedited to address structural problems in the foreign exchange market and encourage more balanced capital flows.

Wasin Rojayaroon, assistant director of the economic and policy department at the Bank of Thailand, said this year's foreign exchange outlook will be marred by high volatility on the back of the pandemic and excess liquidity coming from a dovish monetary policy adopted by global central banks.

Malleability is another key theme. Based on the central bank study, the baht's value is influenced by movement of foreign currencies at 85%, with the remaining 15% attributed to other factors, said Mr Wasin.: https://www.bangkokpost.com/business...for-shaky-2021

[S Landreth]

The week ending January 15th, 2021 the Thai Baht was being exchanged at 29.54 baht to every 1 US dollar.

Predictions………..

1 - Robert C. Doll, CFA
Senior Portfolio Manager and Chief Equity Strategist
Bob Doll serves as a leading member of the equities investing team for Nuveen, providing reasoned analysis through equity portfolio management and ongoing market commentary on behalf of Nuveen’s Equity Investment Council.

2021 - 10 Predictions

#3 - The U.S. dollar sinks to a five-year low.

2 - Talley Ho Ho Ho
Works part-time as a money manager in a developing country

2021 - 1 Prediction

I am thinking more like 40 baht to the dollar.

I'm siding with Mr. Doll

[S Landreth]

The week ending January 22^nd, 2021 the Thai Baht was being exchanged at 29.52 baht to every 1 US dollar.

• Money changers explore related services

Money changer companies are exploring new foreign exchange-related businesses to seek new income sources after their businesses have been drastically affected by the pandemic.

SuperRich Currency Exchange (1965), a leading local money changer, has submitted an application for a money transfer and e-money licence with the Bank of Thailand and is awaiting regulatory approval.

The company is also in talks with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) about the possibility of operating foreign exchange services for digital asset exchanges in Thailand, said Piya Tantivachayanon, SuperRich's president.

In 2018, Mr Piya commented on the company's business opportunity in the digital asset realm, saying the company would "offer digital asset exchange [services] for travellers" and had plans to offer an e-wallet service, with a potential business partner helping to develop the technology.

SuperRich has been adopting digital infrastructures in preparation to provide services on a digital platform, covering both the existing foreign exchange business and new business ventures.

The company has allocated an investment budget of around 70 million baht for digitisation and began investment last year. The search for potential business partners in technological development continues.

"This year, the company will mainly concentrate on digital infrastructure development and build up a digital network to prepare for the digital era and new business opportunities in the post-Covid-19 period," said Mr Piya.

He said the pandemic has yielded a heavy impact on Thailand's tourism sector and subsequently stifled local money changing businesses significantly.

The company's foreign exchange volume has plunged to around 800 million baht per month compared with 9 billion baht registered before the crisis emerged.

Controlling operation costs is another key strategy to manage business operations amid the prolonged crisis. SuperRich has been closing physical branches since last year, with a target of 13 branches in the Bangkok metropolitan area by March from the previous target of 49 branches before the crisis erupted.

Another local money changer, Superrich Thailand Forex (SRT Forex), has expanded its business line into international money transfers after receiving a business licence from the Bank of Thailand.

SRT Forex plans to launch its new business within the first quarter, said managing director Sittharmanin Susamawathanakun.

For cross-border remittance services, the company will be focusing on parents who transfer money to children studying abroad and migrant workers working in Thailand who want to transfer money back home.

"The new business will contribute a new source of income, but the business target has yet to be finalised, given the backdrop of several uncertainties. At present, the company's foreign exchange transaction volume has declined only 10%, but it has improved from the first outbreak," she said.

The firm booked zero transactions between April to May last year during the nationwide lockdown imposed to contain the outbreak.

Apart from cross-border remittance services scheduled to launch within the first half, the firm has set up a new unit to provide customers with advisory services and assistance, akin to a call centre.

SRT Forex has also been adopting a digital platform in preparation for related foreign exchange business opportunities. The firm is exploring potential business partners for digital platform development.

Ms Sittharmanin said the firm implemented an early retirement programme last year and reduced its headcount by 20%, while adopting a move to rotate and re-skill workers in preparation for new services. SRT Forex has 12 physical branches following the closure of two branches in a bid to control expenses.: https://www.bangkokpost.com/business...lated-services

[S Landreth]

The week ending January 29^th, 2021 the Thai Baht was being exchanged at 29.46 baht to every 1 US dollar.

[S Landreth]

The week ending February 5^th, 2021 the Thai Baht was being exchanged at 29.62 baht to every 1 US dollar.

BOT keeps interest rate at 0.5% amid weak economic recovery

The Bank of Thailand (BOT) kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged on Wednesday.

The unanimous vote to maintain the policy rate at 0.5 per cent was exercised to support a fragile economic recovery. The BOT policy committee assessed that the new outbreak of Covid-19 would take a short-term toll on the Thai economy.

However, exports and stimulus from government measures were expected to improve, said Titanun Mallikamas, secretary of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) after Wednesday’s meeting.

The MPC calculated the economic impact of the fresh outbreak was not as severe as the first wave, thanks to less stringent disease-control measures.

Meanwhile the economy had responded quickly to government stimulus measures while recovery of exports had gathered pace. As a result, the Thai economy had expanded – though slightly less than previously estimated.

In the short term, economic recovery will depend on the effectiveness of control measures for the new virus wave. The next phase of recovery would depend on the return of foreign tourists and the effectiveness of Covid-19 vaccination programmes.

The labour market would also be affected by the new outbreak, resulting in a short-term rise in unemployment and virtual unemployment.

The committee said it would use additional monetary tools to support economic recovery if appropriate, while monitoring both the sufficiency of government measures and various risk factors – especially the pandemic situation both here and abroad.: https://www.nationthailand.com/busin...ernal_referral

[S Landreth]

The week ending February 11th, 2021 the Thai Baht was being exchanged at 29.43 baht to every 1 US dollar.

• Foreign investment pledges slump 54% in 2020

Foreign investment applications in Thailand dropped 54% to 213 billion baht in 2020 as companies were deterred by the coronavirus pandemic, while this year's outlook remains uncertain, the Board of Investment (BoI) said on Wednesday.

Japan remains Thailand's biggest investor, with projects worth 76 billion baht, followed by China's 31 billion baht of pledges and the United States' 25 billion baht, the BoI said in a statement.

Last year, combined domestic and foreign investment pledges fell 30% from a year earlier to 481 billion baht, led by projects in electronics, agriculture and food processing, plus a 165% surge in the medical sector, it said.

"The coronavirus outbreak represented both a challenge and an opportunity," BoI chief Duangjai Asawachintachit told a briefing.: https://www.bangkokpost.com/business...ump-54-in-2020

• Are Thai govt savings bonds attractive?

Public Debt Management Office (PDMO) chief Patricia Mongkhonvanit on Wednesday encouraged people to purchase newly issued government savings bonds worth Bt8 billion.

The Bt8 billion issuance is part of Bt55 billion in savings bonds being offered under the Rao Chana (We Win) scheme to fund COVID-19 recovery efforts. Retail investors can buy the bonds at branches of Bangkok Bank, Kasikornbank, Krungthai Bank and Siam Commercial Bank nationwide until February 15.

What are the rates of return?

The five-year bond has an average coupon rate of 2 per cent – 1.5 per cent in the first two years, 2 per cent in the third and fourth year and 3 per cent in the fifth year.

The 10-year bond averages 2.5 per cent – 1.5 per cent in the first year, 2 per cent in the second and third years, 2.5 per cent in years 4-6 and 3 per cent in years 7-10. Interest is paid twice a year on February 5 and August 5.: https://www.thaipbsworld.com/are-tha...ds-attractive/

[S Landreth]

The week ending February 19^th, 2021 the Thai Baht was being exchanged at 29.50 baht to every 1 US dollar.

[S Landreth]

The week ending February 25th, 2021 the Thai Baht was being exchanged at 29.63 baht to every 1 US dollar.

[S Landreth]

A Thursday update……..

March 4^th, 2021 the Thai Baht was being exchanged at 29.91 baht to every 1 US dollar.