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  • Originally posted by S Landreth View Post
    multiple tornadoes touched down
    Never seen a tornado but over the water. Waterspout

    Where to hide???????

    Keep your friends close and your enemies closer


    • AccuWeather to Florida: Watch out this hurricane season

      The 2021 Atlantic hurricane season is expected to be more active than usual, according to an early forecast from private forecasting service AccuWeather — and this time Florida may not be so fortunate.

      If the prediction of another active season sounds familiar, that’s because the last five storm seasons were all active. Last year a record 30 named storms formed and kept forecasters busy for months.

      Florida faces a heightened risk this year because of the weakening of the Bermuda high. Last year that high-pressure zone pushed many storms south of the state, delaying their turn north until they were past the peninsula and in the southern Gulf of Mexico.

      The Bermuda high helped Florida avoid a direct hit from a hurricane in 2020. Six hurricanes made landfall in the U.S., and four actually took aim at Florida, but none reached the Sunshine State. The state, though, may no longer be shielded.

      “The pattern that’s setting up is that we could see more of these early-curving storms,” said AccuWeather lead hurricane forecaster Dan Kottlowski. “That could threaten the east coast a little more this year than previous years.”

      The weakened Bermuda High also means more storms could reach the eastern seaboard.

      The forecast contains some good news for those who live along the Gulf of Mexico and the Atlantic. This season is not projected to be anywhere as frenetic as 2020 was, when 13 hurricanes formed and six grew into major hurricanes.

      AccuWeather projects the Atlantic will produce 16 to 20 named storms this year. Those figures are slightly above the 30-year average of 14 named storms per season.

      The forecast also calls for the Atlantic to spawn seven to 10 hurricanes. Three to five of them could become major hurricanes generating wind speeds exceeding 111 mph, which is a Category 3 storm on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.

      The Bermuda high’s rim is expected to be farther northeast at the peak of this year’s hurricane season in August through October, which could cause storms to curve north earlier and strike the east coast, Kottlowski said.

      Other concerning signs that scientists will watch in 2021 are slightly above-normal sea-surface temperatures in the Atlantic and projected low levels of wind shear. Storms are also expected to form earlier this year (before and around the traditional June 1 start) in part because the La Niña cycle — a Pacific phenomenon that affects Atlantic weather — will still be in effect in June and July. That means less Atlantic wind shear to disrupt storm formations.

      Weak wind shear allowed a record number of storms to form last year. But this year some models show La Niña could go into a “neutral pattern” starting in August, resulting in more wind shear that could make conditions harder for storms to form.

      “The pattern is not as robust as last year,” Kottlowski said. “This is why we don’t think we’ll have another 30 storms this year.”:

      Keep your friends close and your enemies closer


      • Lightning Strikes Will More Than Double in Arctic As Climate Warms, Driving Increased Wildfires and Warming

        University of California, Irvine-led team reports that an increase in lightning will drive both wildfires and warming above Arctic Circle.

        In 2019, the National Weather Service in Alaska reported spotting the first-known lightning strikes within 300 miles of the North Pole. Lightning strikes are almost unheard of above the Arctic Circle, but scientists led by researchers at the University of California, Irvine have published new research in the journal Nature Climate Change detailing how Arctic lightning strikes stand to increase by about 100 percent over northern lands by the end of the century as the climate continues warming.

        “We projected how lightning in high-latitude boreal forests and Arctic tundra regions will change across North America and Eurasia,” said Yang Chen, a research scientist in the UCI Department of Earth System Science who led the new work. “The size of the lightning response surprised us because expected changes at mid-latitudes are much smaller.”

        The finding offers a glimpse into the changes that are in store for the Arctic as the planet continues warming; it suggests Arctic weather reports during summertime will be closer to those seen today far to the south, where lightning storms are more common.

        James Randerson, a professor in UCI’s Department of Earth System Science who co-authored the study, was part of a NASA-led field campaign that studied wildfire occurrence in Alaska during 2015, which was a extreme year for wildfires in the state. “2015 was an exceptional fire year because of a record number of fire starts,” Randerson said. “One thing that got us thinking was that lightning was responsible for the record-breaking number of fires.”

        This led Chen to look at over-twenty-year-old NASA satellite data on lighting strikes in northern regions, and construct a relationship between the flash rate and climatic factors. By using future climate projections from multiple models used by the United Nations, the team estimated a significant increase in lightning strikes as a result of increases in atmospheric convection and more intense thunderstorms.

        A lightning strike bump could open a Pandora’s box of related troubles. Fires, Randerson explained, burn away short grasses, mosses, and shrubs that are important components of Arctic tundra ecosystems. Such plants cover much of the landscape, and one thing they do is keep the seeds of trees from taking root in the soil. After a fire burns away low-lying plants, however, seeds from trees can more easily grow on bare soil, allowing forests stands to expand north. Evergreen forests will replace what’s typically a snow-covered landscape; snow’s white hue reflects sunlight back out into space, but darker forests absorb solar energy, helping warm the region even further.

        And there’s more trouble: more fires mean more permafrost — perennially frozen soil that defines much of the Arctic landscape — will melt as the fires strip away protective insulative layers of moss and dead organic matter that keep soils cool. Permafrost stores a lot of organic carbon that, if melted out of the ice, will convert to greenhouse gases carbon dioxide and methane, which, when released, will drive even more warming.

        The lighting finding comes of the heels of another study that, led by Randerson, published in the Journal of Geophysical Research on Monday, April 5 describes how amplified Arctic warming and the melting of the Greenland ice sheet will scramble food webs in the surrounding oceans.

        Now, Chen and Randerson say, scientists need to start paying more attention to the frequency of Arctic lightning strikes so they can gauge how the story unfolds in the coming decades.

        “This phenomenon is very sporadic, and it’s very difficult to measure accurately over long time periods,” said Randerson. “It’s so rare to have lightning above the Arctic Circle.” Their results, he hopes, will galvanize calls for new satellite missions that can monitor Arctic and boreal latitudes for lightning strikes and the fires they might ignite.

        Back in 2019, the National Weather Service in Alaska released a special announcement about the North Pole lightning strikes. Such announcements, however, may struggle to make headlines by the end of the century.:

        Keep your friends close and your enemies closer


        • Lightning storms. Not a good thing with dry forests
          Keep your friends close and your enemies closer


          • Twelve crew rescued from cargo ship adrift in huge seas off Norway

            A Dutch cargo ship is adrift in the Norwegian Sea after all of its crew members were airlifted, with some having to jump into the rough waters to be rescued.

            The Eemslift Hendrika, which was carrying several smaller boats from Bremerhaven in Germany to Kolvereid in Norway, made a distress call Monday, reporting a heavy list after stormy weather displaced some of its cargo.

            The 12 crew members were evacuated from the listing vessel in two stages later the same day by Norwegian rescue services.

            The first eight were airlifted by helicopter from the deck.

            But the last four had to jump into the huge seas because the waves were rocking the boat and the list was too severe.

            Footage from the Norwegian authorities showed a man in an orange survival suit throwing himself into the rough sea off the stern of the ship. The ship also suffered an engine failure and was drifting towards to the Norwegian coastline.

            On Tuesday morning it was about 130km (80 miles) north-west of the port city of Alesund.

            One of the boats it was carrying on deck fell into the sea, potentially helping to reduce its list, which is now estimated to be about 30 degrees after hovering between 40 and 50 degrees.

            “The situation seems to be more stable but there is still a risk that it could capsize,” Hans-Petter Mortensholm with the Norwegian Coastal Administration (Kystverket), told AFP.

            “We want to put someone on board to arrange for a tow as soon as the weather conditions allow,” he added.

            The cargo ship contains 350 cubic metres of heavy fuel oil, 75 cubic metres of diesel and 10 cubic metres of lubricating oil.

            A Norwegian Coast Guard vessel arrived at the ship on Tuesday.

            The operator of the vessel has also called in the Dutch company Smit Salvage, which was involved in the refloating of the Ever Given in Egypt’s Suez Canal last week.:

            Keep your friends close and your enemies closer


            • More forecasters are predicting an active hurricane season in 2021

              Weather researchers from Colorado State University say the 2021 Atlantic hurricane season will likely be more active than normal, for the sixth straight year. But they don’t expect it to be as stormy as last year’s explosive, record-breaking season.

              CSU’s early seasonal forecast is similar to the pre-season outlook issued last week by AccuWeather forecasters, who also called for a busy hurricane season this year.

              CSU is predicting 17 named storms, five higher than the normal average. Of the 17, eight are likely to intensify into hurricanes, and four of those are likely to become major hurricanes.

              Major hurricanes are storms that are classified as Category 3, 4 or 5 in terms of wind strength. Category 3 hurricanes pack sustained winds of 111 to 129 mph, Category 4 storms produce winds as strong as 130 to 156 mph and Category 5 hurricanes generate catastrophic winds higher than 156 mph.

              Two of the main factors driving this year’s active hurricane season are expectations that surface water temperatures in the Atlantic hurricane basin will be warmer than normal, similar to last year’s conditions, and the anticipated lack of a strong El Niño climate pattern, according to Philip Klotzbach, a meteorologist and storm expert at Colorado State University who co-authored the 2021 hurricane outlook.: - -

              Last edited by S Landreth; 04-09-2021, 02:28 PM.
              Keep your friends close and your enemies closer


              • Think Florida is in for a storm in some areas for the next day or so
                Keep your friends close and your enemies closer


                • should be gone a little after hurricane season starts
                  Keep your friends close and your enemies closer


                  • Hurricane forecasts again looking ominous for coastal residents, property owners, and US taxpayers

                    After a season that produced a record number of tropical storms — including several that devastated the Gulf Coast and two that set off flooding and caused hundreds of thousands of power outages in the Philadelphia region — the Atlantic Basin might be in for another active, damaging, and costly season in 2021, forecasters are saying.

                    That’s the consensus of preseason outlooks issued so far that are again seeing significantly above-average numbers for named storms, those with peak winds of at least 39 mph; hurricanes, winds of 74 mph or more; and “major” hurricanes, winds 111 mph or higher, or a Category 3 on the Saffir-Simpson scale.

                    Bowing to the limits of science, meteorologists eschew too much in the way of specificity, but the likelihood of at least one Category 3 making landfall on the U.S. mainland is near 70%, according to the forecast released Thursday by Colorado State University, a pioneer in long-range hurricane outlooks.

                    The outlooks have been quite similar to those issued this time last year that correctly foresaw above-average numbers of storms — but not nearly above-average enough in a year in which the basin, which also includes the Caribbean Sea and Gulf Mexico, became reacquainted with the Greek alphabet after the National Hurricane Center ran out of names.

                    Colorado State foresees 17 named storms, with eight of those becoming hurricanes, during the June 1 to Nov. 30 season. The normals would be 11 tropical storms, six hurricanes, and two Category 3s, by the hurricane center’s calculations.

                    Colorado State’s is reasonably in line with the call by AccuWeather Inc. — 16 to 20 named storms, seven to 10 hurricanes, three to five majors. The WeatherBell Analytics’ forecast calls for 16 to 22 tropical storms, nine to 13 hurricanes, and three to six Category 3s, with an ominous addition: It predicts three to six of the hurricanes making landfall.

                    The government will weigh in next month, and it would be surprising if it, too, didn’t call for an active season.

                    Sea-surface temperatures in the subtropical North Atlantic, where hurricanes are spawned, have been above-normal, meteorologist Philip Klotzbach noted in the Colorado State forecast.

                    In addition, satellite imagery shows that the Gulf of Mexico also is warmer than normal, particularly southeast of Louisiana.

                    “Overall, the current SST anomaly pattern correlates relatively well with what is typically seen in active Atlantic hurricane seasons,” said Klotzbach.

                    Conditions in the tropical Pacific won’t be as cool as last season, when they were ideal for tropical storm development in the Atlantic.

                    But they won’t revert to El Nino, in which widespread warming results in more evaporation, thus more convection and strong west-to-east winds that can rip apart incipient tropical storms in the Atlantic.

                    About 2020

                    Hurricane Laura, blamed for at least 14 deaths in the Gulf region, was one of a record 12 tropical storms that made landfall on the United States last year.

                    Two of those, Fay and Isaias, had significant impacts in the Philadelphia region.

                    So many named storms formed — a record 30 — that the hurricane center ran through the naming alphabet. However that record might require an asterisk.

                    Several were “one-day wonders,” observed Frank D. Marks, director of Hurricane Research Division at NOAA’s Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory.

                    Comparing 2020′s bounty with those of previous seasons would be “really problematical,” said Christopher Landsea, chief of the National Hurricane Center’s Tropical Analysis and Forecasting Branch. Monitoring and detection have improved since the cosmically destructive 2005 season, the previous record holder with 28 named storms.

                    That caveat notwithstanding, 2020 was an extraordinary tropical storm season, and about the last thing that coastal residents and property owners need is another active season.

                    Historically, hurricanes have been the No. 1 drain on disaster-emergency funds, and the government’s swamped National Flood Insurance Program. As of October it was $20.5 billion in debt, even though Congress had “canceled” $15 billion of its debt in 2018.

                    One forecast is safe: No storms will be named for Greek letters this year. By tradition, after the 21st storm — q, u, x, y, and z were omitted — the center would conscript the Greek alphabet, starting with Alpha. Last year it got all the way to Iota.

                    Starting this year, the center will use an alternate set of names, starting with Adria, in accord with World Meteorological Organization protocols.:

                    Keep your friends close and your enemies closer


                    • Originally posted by S Landreth View Post
                      Hurricane forecasts again looking ominous for coastal residents, property owners, and US taxpayers

                      cost is growing
                      Keep your friends close and your enemies closer


                      • The wet season seems to have arrived about 6 weeks early here. We're now getting storms nearly every night.

                        I visited TC a few times as a guest but had to stop. It is a sickening place. - Aging One


                        • ^but it'll cool the place down a bit
                          Keep your friends close and your enemies closer


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