By Suttinee Yuvejwattana (Bloomberg)November 6, 2019, 4:00 AM GMT+7
- Sixteen of 26 economists see 25 bps interest-rate cut to 1.25%
- Baht has strengthened almost 8% year-to-date, fastest in Asia
interventionCurrency Gainsease ruleswatchlist of potential currency manipulators in a forthcoming U.S. report on the foreign-exchange policies of key trading partners.
Such a step would complicate currency and monetary policy, according to Citigroup Inc. The U.S. on Oct. 25 said it will suspend $1.3 billion in trade benefits for the Asian nation, which some analysts interpreted as a warning shot.
U.S. Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross said Nov. 4 the planned suspension had been blown out of proportion, with the Thai government adding that the U.S. agreed to reconsider the step.
Thailand, which ran a $19.6 billion goods surplus with the U.S. in the 12 months through August, denies intervening in the foreign-exchange market for an unfair advantage in trade. The central bank has said it only acts against excessive baht swings.
Low Inflation
Coinciding with the baht strength is a consistent dip in inflation, with the consumer price index remaining stubbornly below the 1% to 4% goal for five months.
The monetary authority intends to narrow the target but has yet to reveal the proposed new range.
Financial Stability