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DJ and the PM
ALAN DAWSON
10 Dec 2017
On the first Dec 5 National Day of the only active military regime in the world, the United States sent a so typically American message -- "Nice foreign relations we've got here. Be a shame if anything happened to them."
Not in those words of course. What will happen, according to the warm message of friendship signed by US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson, is that Thailand's ruling junta and its government will truly gum up the works and toss multiple spanners into the foreign relations machinery if they just do one tiny little thing: reschedule the election for 2019.
There's not been a secret about this. Butter wouldn't melt in the mouth of DJ Trump (rhymes with "grump") when he talked with the general prime minister. Mr Tillerson also put it in a fatherly way: "We look forward to Thailand holding elections next year." English translation: No election and we're turning the freezer back on, diplomacy-wise.
When Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha met President DJ Trump at the White House, he promised elections in 2018 and the US is holding him to it.
Pretty well everywhere else, US officials have talked softly and waved a big stick about it.
If there's not an election in 2018, it's back to the drawing board and Obama-style blunt criticism of the only army-run national government on earth. There will be sanctions on defence sales and Cobra Gold, long advertised as Asia's largest war games, will assume the importance of a parade ground march-by.
Despite all that, the regime by every public action and statement is trying hard to come up with excuses for more vote delays. Last week there was open speculation of delaying the vote to 2019. And remember, it has already been delayed to 2015, 2016, 2017 and 2018.
PM Prayut Chan-o-cha and every talking head down the line have manufactured two current excuses for having to delay a vote again. One is all the darned red tape and paperwork involved in changing the election laws to fit with the military's new constitution. The other is all that armed resistance that's going on.
Of course there hasn't been a shot fired. Of course the so-called "huge" arms cache found in a Chachoengsao swamp would fit easily in a locker in a hi-so Bangkok gym. Of course no other civilised country has put off elections even when there were actual, real, armed attacks.
But the threat posed by some hand grenades has the military government terrified. Or so it says.
Deputy Prime Minister Prawit Wongsuwon, who is the minister of defence, can't explain how he got a jewellery box full of bling-bling. He can, however, explain in detail how a small bag of grenades and loose bullets threatens national security. Of course he also has been the man behind the steadily evolving explanations of why there was a coup, so on some subjects he's clearly an expert. From here, however, any lengthening of the prime minister's mysterious roadmap would be a serious error -- so serious it could bring punishment. It would raise an obvious question: If a government bragging of its competence can't organise and run an election in a year, just what can it do?
Until he went to the White House, the dear leader was very coy about elections. He delayed them and delayed them but, to be fair, he never set a date. But DJ Trump got him to sign a promise. He's now hemmed in, on the record, signature at the bottom, with elections within 2018.
In short, he's at the point that predecessor coup maker Gen Suchinda Krapayoon faced in February 1992 -- completely in the catbird's seat, fully in control and getting popular support with his promise never, ever to be prime minister.
And all Gen Suchinda did to spark a popular movement that overthrew his junta in the Black May uprising was break his promise.
Battling cliches have it that past performance is no guarantee of future results, but those who fail to learn from history are doomed to repeat it.
There's no guarantee that an election delay would cause noticeable kerfuffles on many streets in many Thai cities and towns. There's also no certainty that the general prime minister could come up with an explanation sufficient to cover his extreme lower back area should he try to foist off the fourth delay in free, fair elections.
The problem in putting off a popular vote to yet another calendar year is that the regime's so-called roadmap is at a dead end. The country might accept another delay without revolt, but no one would believe the excuses any more than they believe Gen Prawit bought that watch on his army pension.
bangkokpost.com
ALAN DAWSON
10 Dec 2017
On the first Dec 5 National Day of the only active military regime in the world, the United States sent a so typically American message -- "Nice foreign relations we've got here. Be a shame if anything happened to them."
Not in those words of course. What will happen, according to the warm message of friendship signed by US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson, is that Thailand's ruling junta and its government will truly gum up the works and toss multiple spanners into the foreign relations machinery if they just do one tiny little thing: reschedule the election for 2019.
There's not been a secret about this. Butter wouldn't melt in the mouth of DJ Trump (rhymes with "grump") when he talked with the general prime minister. Mr Tillerson also put it in a fatherly way: "We look forward to Thailand holding elections next year." English translation: No election and we're turning the freezer back on, diplomacy-wise.
When Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha met President DJ Trump at the White House, he promised elections in 2018 and the US is holding him to it.
Pretty well everywhere else, US officials have talked softly and waved a big stick about it.
If there's not an election in 2018, it's back to the drawing board and Obama-style blunt criticism of the only army-run national government on earth. There will be sanctions on defence sales and Cobra Gold, long advertised as Asia's largest war games, will assume the importance of a parade ground march-by.
Despite all that, the regime by every public action and statement is trying hard to come up with excuses for more vote delays. Last week there was open speculation of delaying the vote to 2019. And remember, it has already been delayed to 2015, 2016, 2017 and 2018.
PM Prayut Chan-o-cha and every talking head down the line have manufactured two current excuses for having to delay a vote again. One is all the darned red tape and paperwork involved in changing the election laws to fit with the military's new constitution. The other is all that armed resistance that's going on.
Of course there hasn't been a shot fired. Of course the so-called "huge" arms cache found in a Chachoengsao swamp would fit easily in a locker in a hi-so Bangkok gym. Of course no other civilised country has put off elections even when there were actual, real, armed attacks.
But the threat posed by some hand grenades has the military government terrified. Or so it says.
Deputy Prime Minister Prawit Wongsuwon, who is the minister of defence, can't explain how he got a jewellery box full of bling-bling. He can, however, explain in detail how a small bag of grenades and loose bullets threatens national security. Of course he also has been the man behind the steadily evolving explanations of why there was a coup, so on some subjects he's clearly an expert. From here, however, any lengthening of the prime minister's mysterious roadmap would be a serious error -- so serious it could bring punishment. It would raise an obvious question: If a government bragging of its competence can't organise and run an election in a year, just what can it do?
Until he went to the White House, the dear leader was very coy about elections. He delayed them and delayed them but, to be fair, he never set a date. But DJ Trump got him to sign a promise. He's now hemmed in, on the record, signature at the bottom, with elections within 2018.
In short, he's at the point that predecessor coup maker Gen Suchinda Krapayoon faced in February 1992 -- completely in the catbird's seat, fully in control and getting popular support with his promise never, ever to be prime minister.
And all Gen Suchinda did to spark a popular movement that overthrew his junta in the Black May uprising was break his promise.
Battling cliches have it that past performance is no guarantee of future results, but those who fail to learn from history are doomed to repeat it.
There's no guarantee that an election delay would cause noticeable kerfuffles on many streets in many Thai cities and towns. There's also no certainty that the general prime minister could come up with an explanation sufficient to cover his extreme lower back area should he try to foist off the fourth delay in free, fair elections.
The problem in putting off a popular vote to yet another calendar year is that the regime's so-called roadmap is at a dead end. The country might accept another delay without revolt, but no one would believe the excuses any more than they believe Gen Prawit bought that watch on his army pension.
bangkokpost.com
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