Storms

[S Landreth]

Tropical depression forms off Carolina coast. It could soon become Tropical Storm Bill.

Bill, the second named storm of 2021, could soon form from a tropical depression located off the coast of North Carolina, forecasters said Monday.

Tropical Storm Bill is expected to form by Monday night, according to the National Hurricane Center.

Radar and satellite data from the weather service showed an uptick of thunderstorm activity within the system, known as Tropical Depression Two. As of 11 a.m. Monday, the tropical depression was moving at 21 mph off Cape Hatteras with maximum sustained winds of 35 mph. Tropical storms form when winds speeds reach a minimum of 39 mph.

“Warm waters of the Gulf Stream have nurtured the system this past weekend and may continue to do so long enough in the short term for tropical storm generation,” AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Dan Pydynowski said.

The forecast path tracks to the northeast away from the U.S. and then off toward Nova Scotia by Wednesday. It is not expected to develop further after that, experts said.

Tropical Storm Ana, the first named storm of 2021 developed in late May, several hundred miles from Bermuda.

A second system, nestled in the Bay of Campeche off Mexico’s east coast, is also being monitored for potential storm development.

The large trough of low pressure in the Gulf is forecast to morph into a tropical storm later this week as moves across the central or northwestern Gulf. It could bring heavy rainfall to the U.S. Gulf Coast on Friday, experts said.

Water temperatures in the Gulf are above 80 degrees, which is conducive for storm development. But storm-shredding wind shear is also present.

“The potential exists later on this week for a brief window of relaxed wind shear across the central Gulf of Mexico, possibly providing a narrow time frame conducive for intensification,” according to AccuWeather.

The disturbance has a 70% chance of formation in the next five days, according to the hurricane center. It had low odds of developing in the next 48 hours.

Meanwhile, a tropical wave formed Monday off the coast of Africa. Its development is likely to be hindered by wind shear.

Clouds of Saharan dust from Africa routinely drift over the Atlantic Ocean. These plumes of dry air can slow the development of storms by starving them of the moisture they need to become hurricanes. A layer of the dust is moving over the southern Caribbean this week, according to AccuWeather.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predicted a busy hurricane season this year, estimating between 13 and 20 named storms.

Hurricane season runs through Nov. 30.: https://www.sun-sentinel.com/news/we...42e-story.html

[S Landreth]

Tropical disturbance in southern Gulf now has 50% chance of development

A tropical disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico now has a 50 percent chance of developing into a depression late this week, hurricane forecasters said in the 7 a.m. Sunday tropical outlook.

It's not yet clear if the system will be a threat to Louisiana.

The trough of low pressure continued to produce clouds and showers over the Bay of Campeche in the southern Gulf on Sunday. Forecasters said this trough could develop slowly over the next several days, becoming a tropical depression late in the week.

"Regardless of development, heavy rainfall will be possible over portions of Central America and southern Mexico during the next several days," forecasters said the 7 a.m. outlook.

The next available storm name of the hurricane season is Bill.

Subtropical Storm Ana formed May 22 in the Atlantic, and eventually became a tropical storm.

Another active hurricane season is expected this year, according to forecasters with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, which oversees the National Hurricane Center.

Their predictions call for 13 to 20 named storms, with 6 to 10 of them hurricanes and 3 to 5 reaching Category 3 strength or higher.

If accurate, this will be an above-average season for the sixth consecutive year.

Last year's hurricane season holds the record for the most named storms in a season - 30. The previous record of 28 was set in 2005. Official records date to 1851.

The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through Nov. 30.: https://www.nola.com/news/hurricane/...9bb2ee22d.html

[S Landreth]

Need some rain/a storm

Lake Mead: largest US reservoir falls to historic low amid devastating drought

Levels in Lake Mead – the largest US reservoir by volume – fell to historic lows on Thursday, as the region continues to face the effects of a devastating prolonged drought.

Stationed on the main stem of the Colorado River in the Mojave along the Arizona-Nevada border, Lake Mead was formed with the construction of the Hoover dam, which generates electricity for areas in Arizona, California and Nevada. It provides water for urban, rural and tribal lands across the south-west.

Officials, who said the reservoir will be at its lowest since the 1930s when the dam was built, expect levels to get worse through another dry, hot summer. With no reprieve expected in the coming months, the human-made lake is currently at roughly 36% of its capacity.

In normal years, the dam produces enough electricity for 8 million people, but the water shortage will slow energy output while adding additional pressure on the increasingly water-starved systems across the west.

“Every foot of lake level decline means about six [megawatt] of lost capacity,” Patricia Aaron, the Bureau of Reclamation spokesperson, told CNN. The Hoover dam’s energy capacity had already dropped by 25% by Tuesday, and Aaron added that levels will continue to decline through the autumn this year.

The rapid decline has prompted plans for the first-ever water shortage declaration from the federal government, according to reports from the US Bureau of Reclamation released in April, which projected the record-breaking declines. The declaration, which will probably be issued in August of this year, would affect distribution to states and Mexico.: https://www.theguardian.com/environm...ir-drought-low

[S Landreth]

Lightning strikes kill 27 during monsoon storm in eastern India

Lightning strikes have killed 27 people and sent four passengers on a flight to hospital after severe turbulence during monsoon storms in eastern India, officials said.

Officials said West Bengal was hit by thunderstorms late Monday, with lightning strikes in parts of the state – a fairly common occurrence during the June to September annual monsoon in the country.

“Many of the 27 killed on Monday evening… in the state were farmers and working in the fields,” West Bengal disaster management minister Javed Ahmed Khan told the AFP news agency on Tuesday.

The victims were mostly farmers, though some were people who simply happened to be outdoors, authorities said. The storms hit six districts of the state, accompanied by strong winds.

A flight from the western city of Mumbai to Kolkata, the capital of West Bengal, was caught in the storm as it was about to land, officials said.

Eight passengers were injured, with four taken to hospital.

“One passenger is still admitted in the hospital. The others have been discharged,” the airport’s director C Pattabhi told AFP. “It was a close shave for the passengers.”

Prime Minister Narendra Modi announced a financial compensation of 200,000 rupees ($2,746) for the next of kin of those who had died and 50,000 rupees ($686) for each injured person.

Nearly 2,900 people were killed by lightning in India in 2019 according to the National Crime Records Bureau – the most recent figures available.

Summer storms accompanied by strong winds are common in India ahead of the rainy monsoon season. The weather bureau has forecast more storms for India in the coming days.

The monsoon is crucial to replenishing water supplies in South Asia but also causes widespread death and destruction across the region.: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/...-eastern-india

[S Landreth]

Tropical storm Choi-wan leaves Philippines with 9 dead, 1 missing

Tropical storm Choi-wan blew away from the Philippines on Saturday after leaving at least nine dead and one missing.

Choi-wan dissipated into a tropical depression after lashing several regions in the Philippines starting Tuesday, the state weather bureau said, adding the tropical depression "is now outside the Philippine area of responsibility."

The National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council said the storm affected nearly 94,000 people in nine regions in the main Luzon Island, the central and southern Philippines.

The storm caused over 86 million pesos (about 1.8 million U.S. dollars) in damage to agriculture and 53.7 million pesos (about 1.1 million U.S. dollars) in damage to infrastructure, the agency added.

Typhoons and tropical storms regularly batter the Philippines, claiming hundreds of lives and cause billions of dollars in damages.: http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/asi..._139990964.htm

[S Landreth]

The 2021 Atlantic Hurricane Season Has Begun. Here Are The 21 Storm Names

Ana (AH-nah), Bill (bill), Claudette (klaw-DET), Danny (DAN-ee), Elsa (EL-suh), Fred (frehd), Grace (grayss), Henri (ahn-REE), Ida (EYE-duh), Julian (JOO-lee-uhn), Kate (kayt), Larry (LAIR-ree), Mindy (MIN-dee), Nicholas (NIH-kuh-luss), Odette (oh-DEHT), Peter (PEE-tur), Rose (rohz), Sam (sam), Teresa (tuh-REE-suh), Victor (VIK-tur) and Wanda (WAHN-duh)

https://www.npr.org/2021/06/01/10021...21-storm-names

[S Landreth]

Southwest monsoon advances further in more parts of Bay of Bengal, likely to hit Kerala by May 31

The southwest monsoon has advanced further in more parts of southwest and eastcentral Bay of Bengal and conditions are favourable for its onset over Kerala around May 31, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said on Thursday.

The Arabian Sea as well as the Bay of Bengal witnessed two cyclones - Tauktae and Yaas - over the two weeks. Several parts of the country have witnessed an intense rainfall activity due to these two circulations.

"Southwest monsoon has further advanced into some more parts of Maldives-Comorin area, southwest and eastcentral Bay of Bengal, most parts of Southeast Bay of Bengal and some parts of westcentral Bay of Bengal today the May 27 morning.

"Conditions are likely to become favourable for onset of southwest monsoon over Kerala around May 31," the IMD said.

The normal onset date for the monsoon's arrival over Kerala is June 1. This also marks the commencement of four-month rainfall season from June to September.: https://www.indiatoday.in/india/stor...845-2021-05-28

[S Landreth]

Some good news for the US, related to storms

FEMA making $1 billion available for extreme weather events

The Biden administration is making $1 billion available to states, territories, rural communities and tribes to prepare for hurricanes and other extreme weather events, events the administration believes are linked to climate change. It's double the amount that was made available for that purpose in fiscal year 2020.

The White House says the cost of extreme weather events has been extremely high, and in 2020, 22 different weather and climate-related disasters cost the U.S. more than $1 billion each for a total price tag of almost $100 billion. The $1 billion available through the Building Resilience Infrastructure and Communities program, a FEMA pre-disaster mitigation program, is smaller than some climate advocates had hoped, but larger than the $500 million that was available through the BRIC program in in fiscal year 2020.

"I'm here today to make it clear that I will assist on nothing less than readiness for all these challenges," the president said ahead of a hurricane season briefing at FEMA headquarters in Washington, D.C. We're going to make sure that men and women are famous, and are other keys have everything they need, everything they need because I've got an incredibly difficult job. Today I'm announcing that FEMA is going to make a $1 billion available to the states, territories and tribes and rural communities through the building resilience infrastructure and Communities program, so-called BRIC program."

In addition to a deadly pandemic, 2020 brought 30 named storms in the Atlantic Basin, a record. And the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) expects another busy hurricane season. Forecasters believe there will be between 13 and 20 named storms in 2021, according to NOAA.

"As climate change threatens to bring more extreme events like increased floods, sea level rise, and intensifying droughts and wildfires, it is our responsibility to better prepare and support communities, families, and businesses before disaster – not just after," the White House said in a release about the funding. "This includes investing in climate research to improve our understanding of these extreme weather events and our decision making on climate resilience, adaptation, and mitigation. It also means ensuring that communities have the resources they need to build resilience prior to these crises."

Mr. Biden insists that addressing the effects of climate change is front and center in his administration, and has sought to roll back Trump-era regulations related to the environment and to work with other nations on addressing harmful gas emissions.: https://www.cbsnews.com/news/hurrica...-preparedness/

[S Landreth]

Little more about Yaas

Huge swathes of farmland swamped in eastern India after cyclone

More than 96,000ha of agricultural land has been inundated in parts of an eastern Indian state hit by a powerful storm this week, officials said on Friday (May 28), a year after the coastal region was ravaged by a super cyclone.

Cyclone Yaas swept in from the Bay of Bengal on Wednesday, triggering storm surges that broke through embankments in West Bengal state, particularly hitting hard the ecologically sensitive Sundarbans delta that stretches into neighbouring Bangladesh.

Initial assessment by the West Bengal government showed that water had entered around 96,650ha of land that had standing crops, a state official said.

"Fresh flooding was reported from many areas during high tides as the embankments have been left with gaping holes," West Bengal's fisheries minister Akhil Giri told Reuters.

In the Sundarbans, still reeling from the damage wrecked by Cyclone Amphan last year, residents said wide swathes of farmland and fresh water ponds used for small-scale fisheries had been inundated.

"The area is stinking with rotten fish and movement has become extremely difficult because of stagnant water," said Kanai Haldar, a resident of Raidighi in the Sundarbans, where spurs and dykes meant to hold back floodwaters have been damaged.

With climate change pushing up sea surface temperatures, the cyclonic storms that barrel in from the Bay of Bengal have become fiercer and more frequent, particularly in the last decade, according to researchers.

Haldar, speaking to Reuters by telephone, said the damage caused by Yaas appeared more significant compared with last year's storm, because of the scale of sea water ingress, which often renders farmland temporarily unfit for cultivation.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Friday surveyed areas hit by the cyclone in West Bengal and neighbouring Odisha state, which was directly in the path of the storm but suffered less damage.

"All possible assistance will be provided for the damage caused by Cyclone Yaas," he said.: https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/so...-after-cyclone

[S Landreth]

The end of Cyclone Yaas

At least three people died and tens of thousands were made homeless when a powerful cyclone swept into eastern India from the Bay of Bengal on Wednesday, inundating hundreds of low-lying villages, officials said.

Cyclone Yaas was packing gusts of up to 140 kilometers per hour (87 mph), the equivalent of a Category 1 Atlantic hurricane, as it made landfall.: https://www.cnn.com/2021/05/26/india...hnk/index.html

[S Landreth]

Cyclone Yaas Aftermath: Coastal region still reeling under water

There is no going back to normal for thousands of residents of the coastal region as tidal surges caused by cyclone Yaas left a trail of destruction on their houses, farms, fisheries and even roads.

Embankment breaches along the coastline affected many villages, flooding homes and washing away the belongings of some of the most underprivileged people of the country.

Several rivers swelled by one or two metres in different places, flooding vast areas of the coastal region, according to a special bulletin of the Flood Forecasting and Warning Centre (FFWC).

Another statement of the FFWC, released at 9:00am yesterday, said, "The coastal rivers of Bhadra, Ichamati, Rupsa-Pashur, Shibsa, Daratana, Betnai-Kholpetu, Kirtonkhola, Tentulia, Swarupkathi, Kocha, Burishwar, Bishkhali, Surma-Meghna and Burishwar-Payra of Barishal, Satkhira, Khulna, Bagerhat, Pirojpur, Barguna, Jhalokathi, Patuakhali and Bhola districts of Khulna and Barishal divisions are flowing above danger levels at different points which may fall below danger level in next 24 hours."

In Barishal division, at least 10.18km of embankments were ruined and around 80km were partially damaged, according to the Water Development Board (WDB).

Different rivers were flowing 10 to 111 centimetres above the danger level at different points.

Over 2,535 tonnes of fish were washed away as 17,209 ponds were flooded in different districts of the division, causing an estimated loss of Tk 82 crore to fisheries, said Anisur Rahman, deputy director of the Department of Fisheries in Barishal.

In Patuakhali, over 600 tube-wells became unusable due to the tidal surge, said Fayez Ahmed, executive engineer of the Public Health Engineering Department.

Around 92km of village roads and 20 bridges and culverts were damaged in the district, according to the Local Government Engineering Department.

In Cox's Bazar, over 2,570 houses have been damaged. Embankments in Matarbari, Chowfaldondi, Kutubdia and Moheshkhali have been damaged, officials said.

Besides, over 2,000 tonnes of salt worth Tk 85 lakh were damaged, said Zafar Iqbal Bhuiyan, deputy-general manager of Cox's Bazar Salt Industries Development Project.

Noor Ahmed, chairman of Saint Martin's union parishad, said the island suffered severe erosion.

In Bagerhat, seven roads were damaged by flood, said Farid Uddin, executive engineer of Roads and Highways Department (RHD) in the district.

The roads between Baruikhali and Morrelganj and Carebazar and Sannasi Bazar became unusable.

"People of three unions regularly use the roads. We are suffering a lot. Locals are trying to partially repair it for the time being. We urge the government to repair the road immediately," said Nurul Islam, a resident of Chaltabunia area in Morrelgonj.

In Khulna and Satkhira, coastal embankments were breached at 30 places, leaving over 100 villages waterlogged, according to WDB officials.

Koyra upazila is the worst affected area in the region, locals said.: https://www.thedailystar.net/frontpa...-water-2100129

[S Landreth]

Cyclone Yaas: Severe storm lashes India and Bangladesh

A powerful cyclone has torn into eastern India, with reports suggesting it has killed several people.

Cyclone Yaas, which intensified into a "very severe cyclonic storm", hit the states of West Bengal and Orissa - also known as Odisha - on Wednesday, as well as lashing southern Bangladesh.

This is the second cyclone to hit the country in a week, after Cyclone Tauktae killed more than 150 people.

It comes as India is already struggling to deal with its Covid-19 outbreak.

Yaas lashed coastal areas with ferocious wind and rain as it made landfall in India, damaging homes and bringing waves that swamped towns. More than one million people were evacuated in the country as the storm approached.

In its latest update, the India Meteorological Department tweeted that the cyclone had sustained winds of 70-80km/h (43-50mph) and with gusts of up to 90km/h. It said the storm is "likely to move further northwestwards and weaken gradually" in the next three hours.: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-57237953

[S Landreth]

At least two killed as Cyclone Yaas bears down on India

A powerful cyclone has ripped through eastern India, killing at least two people and damaging dozens of homes as authorities tried to move more than a million people to safety from low-lying areas as it approaches the east coast.

Cyclone Yaas was powering across the Bay of Bengal and would batter the eastern states of Odisha and West Bengal, and also Bangladesh, on Wednesday, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said.

“It is likely to cause large-scale damage,” IMD chief Mrutyunjay Mohapatra told Reuters news agency by telephone.

It is expected to produce storm surges of up to 4 metres (13 feet), which are likely to inundate low-lying coastal areas.

A freak cyclone that some experts said was linked to the incoming storm snapped electricity lines, which electrocuted two people, and damaged about 45 houses in West Bengal’s Hooghly district, a government official said.

The state had already moved about 900,000 people in several coastal districts to storm shelters, West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee told reporters.

Neighbouring Odisha state appeared to face the brunt of Cyclone Yaas – the second cyclone to hit the country in a week – where officials also began moving people in cars and boats into storm shelters and other sturdy structures.

In Odisha’s Balasore district, close to where the cyclone is expected to make landfall, volunteers broadcast alerts over megaphones, urging people to move.

“Evacuation is always a challenge. In general, there is a reluctance,” said Vishal Kumar Dev, an official overseeing relief efforts in Balasore. “Often people say, ‘we’ll go only when the rain increases.’ We’re convincing them.”

Cyclones in the Bay of Bengal are common at this time of year, and often roar ashore, causing deaths and destruction in coastal areas of India and Bangladesh.

Last week, Cyclone Tauktae – the most powerful cyclone to hit India’s west coast in more than 20 years – killed more than 150 people.: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/...ias-east-coast

[S Landreth]

Cyclone Yaas to intensify in Bay of Bengal, strike India

Tropical Cyclone Yaas formed in the Bay of Bengal Sunday night eastern time, and is poised to intensify -- perhaps at a rapid rate, as it swirls toward landfall in the Indian coastal state of Odisha on May 26.

The big picture: The storm, which may reach Category 2 or 3 intensity prior to landfall, threatens to cause more disruptions at the same time as India is reeling from a devastating surge in coronavirus cases.

Threat level: Historically, individual Bay of Bengal cyclones have killed tens of thousands, as the coastlines of India and Bangladesh in particular are extremely vulnerable to storm surge flooding.

• However, gains have been made in storm preparation and evacuations in recent years, which has lowered the death toll from even the most powerful cyclones.

The details: The storm is in a favorable environment for intensification, with the only inhibiting factor so far being some dry air at mid-to-upper levels of the atmosphere,

• The warm waters of the Bay of Bengal can help fuel explosive development of this type of storm, with the India Meteorological Department (IMD) warning that it is likely to make landfall Wednesday as a "Very Severe" cyclone.

• The warm waters of the Bay of Bengal can help fuel explosive development of this type of storm, with the India Meteorological Department (IMD) warning that it is likely to make landfall Wednesday as a "Very Severe" cyclone.

• The IMD has issued wind and rainfall warnings for portions of Odisha and West Bengal. In addition to the hazards that high winds and heavy rainfall post, storm surge flooding -- which is the wind-driven increase in water above normally dry land at the coast will be a major threat along and to the north of the storm center.
• It's possible that some surge and heavy rainfall-related flooding will occur in Kolkata, which lies to the north of the storm's projected track.

What we're watching: The storm has under two days to spin over the waters of the Bay of Bengal before it crosses the coast, and the wild card is just how strong the storm will get during this time.

• While some computer models are hinting that it may rapidly intensify into a much more dangerous weather system, it could hold at Category 1 intensity through landfall if it develops more slowly.

https://www.axios.com/cyclone-yaas-i...59fe8a490.html

[S Landreth]

Subtropical Storm Ana Is First Named Storm Of Atlantic Hurricane Season

Hurricane season in the Atlantic is off to an early start for the seventh consecutive year with subtropical storm Ana forming near Bermuda Saturday.

The National Hurricane Center began advisories Saturday morning as Ana began moving west. The storm is expected to move in a slow and erratic manner through Saturday night, bringing rain and gusty winds before gradually weakening over the coming days, the NHC reported.

A subtropical storm is a low-pressure system that originates over tropical or subtropical waters with surface wind speeds of 39 miles per hour or more. These winds move in a circular pattern with a well-defined center, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

The 2021 hurricane season in the Atlantic will likely see above average activity, with 13 to 20 named storms predicted. NOAA is predicting six to 10 of those storms to become hurricanes with winds of 74 miles per hour or higher. The agency is expecting three to five major hurricanes with winds of at least 111 miles per hour, NPR previously reported.

Experts expect less hurricane activity than last year's season, a record-breaking year with 30 named storms that exhausted the list of names. The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through November 30, but there has been debate on changing the start date with named storms occurring in May in recent years.

Ana's arrival serves as a warning for residents living along the coast to begin preparing for the upcoming hurricane season.

"Now is the time for communities along the coastline as well as inland to get prepared for the dangers that hurricanes can bring," Secretary of Commerce Gina Raimondo said. "The experts at NOAA are poised to deliver life-saving early warnings and forecasts to communities, which will also help minimize the economic impacts of storms.": https://www.npr.org/2021/05/22/99946...rricane-season